Macroeconomic Evolution: The Multipolarity of the Process and Quantitative Estimation Models
Journal Title: Social Evolution & History - Year 2015, Vol 14, Issue 2
Abstract
The development of global economy at the turn of the centuries was characterized by the emergence of two new sustained points of growth (China and India), weakening of economic potential of developed countries (G-7), shift of new wave of potential growth to the countries with considerable domestic markets (Russia, Brazil, SAR, Indonesia, Iran, Turkey, Nigeria, Argentine, Vietnam, and Thailand). The economic crisis which started in 2007 revealed that growth potential of G-7 countries has reached its limit, while structural disparity of their economics lowers the competiveness of their goods and services at international markets. In that context countries that may become a ‘new wave’ of economic growth are of practical interest. Assuming that the stability of global development can be provided only at the expense of multipolar growth points, we proposed a set of mathematical models, taking into account key indicators, such as population number, technological growth rates and GDP volume. Calculations, based on these models have been performed. It was shown, that without any regional wars the countries of ‘new wave’ and BRICS are capable of providing the sustainable development of world economy in the first half of the twenty-first century.
Authors and Affiliations
Askar Akaev, Valentin Sokolov
Keywords
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