MAJOR ISSUES OF STATISTICAL QUANTIFICATION OF CURRENT INFLATION IN ACCORDANCE WITH ROMANIA’S TOTAL GROSS REVENUES OF POPULATION – THE NECESSITY FOR A “GENERAL INDEX OF INFLATION” (GII)
Journal Title: Revista Romana de Statistica - Year 2016, Vol 64, Issue 10
Abstract
Between inflation and the gross income of the population there holds one of the major macroeconomic correlations, which takes the form of a complex link of the statistical causality type. This correlation, multiple in point of effect, and profound in point of intensity, is due to the impact of economic, monetary, fiscal, financial, banking and insurance policies, which confer, and finally describe, a close connection having a great diversity of effects, some of which are partially and relatively compensated. Thus, the higher the inflation, the lower are the gross income of the population in terms of purchasing power, which would naturally require an adequate manner of determining inflation, since the quality of the latter as a very significant synthetic indicator of the former is well known great; hence, the implicit need for a most accurate evaluation of such a major economic landmark, which is the expression of deep imbalances. The paper deals with inflation in a statistic and instrumental manner, very succinctly and coherently. After a brief introduction, necessary in terms of concepts and general information, it describes the paradigm of modern inflation, as well as the already felt need to change, by means of methodological extension and restructuring, the current statistical manner of determining inflation, by building a general index of inflation (GII), in an approach aiming to facilitate adaptation to the changes in the real economy and to increase the quality of the analyses based on converting the nominal values into the actual economic values, as well as the forecasts focused on inflation and about inflation. The paper proposes – through the GII and the indices of territorial confrontation, disaggregated spatially – a few pilot indicators, as a requirement arising from the pressing reality of the latest recession and some potential waves of inflation, expected, if not very soon, then certainly perceived as a possibility in the next decade.
Authors and Affiliations
Vasile Dumitrescu, Gheorghe Săvoiu
Keywords
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