Mathematical model of development forecast of heating systems in the country
Journal Title: Проблеми загальної енергетики - Year 2015, Vol 0, Issue 3
Abstract
Creation of heat supply systems over the forecast period is connected to the problem solution on changing the structure of heat generating sources having a higher technical and economic operating indicators in providing quality and reliable thermal energy for consumers in different areas of their activity. To solve this problem a mathematical model was developed that meets the equation between consumers’ demand for thermal energy through their heat load and offers from system of heat generating sources. Forecast levels of consumers’ demand for thermal energy in scopes of application (heating, forced ventilation, hot water) was calculated according to the norms of specific consumption of heat per measurement unit. Averaged standards of specific heat consumption are given in the current regulations (KTM204 Ukraine, DBN) and others. To calculate predictive algorithms levels of heat introduced the factors, which take into account the reduction in norms of specific heat consumption due to implementation of energy efficiency measures, was included into calculation algorithms of forecast levels. According to the calculations of heat energy demand forecast levels the structure of heat-generating sources of heat supply systems can be formed and its thermal capacity can be determined. When selecting the structure of sources the factors are taken into account, such as changes in cost of natural gas, external and domestic industry competition, stat heating system reliability status throughout the chain from production to final consumption. For example, using the algorithms of mathematical model the annual specific consumption of thermal energy according to types of consumption for the period until 2035 was calculated. In closed form the algorithm of mathematical model has been simplified by introduction of generalized factors, which values are given in the current regulations.
Authors and Affiliations
Heorhii Kuts
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP508078
- DOI 10.15407/pge2015.03.017
- Views 53
- Downloads 0
The study of kinetic characteristics of solid biomass
The article is devoted to the issue of improving the environmental performance of TPP of Ukraine by introducing them to pulverized coal and solid biomass co-firing technology. The samples of wood and wheat straw, corn, r...
Automation control of high-power electric boilers as an efficient way of decreasing the nonuniformity of diurnal curves of power loads of the Integrated Power System
On the example of the Central Power System of Ukraine, we consider the possibility of using a present-day electrothermal complex (ETC), consisting of high-power electric boilers and intended for the regulation of load of...
Prognostication of the demand for primary energy resources in the power-intensive productions of food industry with regard for the potential of energy saving
We calculated the predicted levels of consumption of primary energy resources to 2040 with regard for potentials of energy saving in power- intensive productions in the section «Manufacture of food products, drinks, and...
Economic-mathematical model of fuel supply for thermal power sector taking into account the substitution of regular fuel and limits for emissions
The economic and mathematical model for choosing the optimal variant of the thermal power sector operation and the corresponding method of coal supply is presented. The model includes production activities for coal suppl...
Total energy costs for electricity produced by power objects
We have proposed new, detailed methods of determining some values of the total energy expenditures in components of power plants as well as important constants for their finding, which will enable one to determine more e...