Model for calculating the expected cost of new rocket hardware development with account for uncertainty factors

Abstract

Rocket hardware represents technically complex expensive and unique engineering systems. At present, de-cisions on the advisability of implementation of new pocket hardware development projects are made based on financial feasibility study materials with the use of the benefit–cost or cost–efficiency criterion without even rough quantitative estimates of cost overrun or efficiency reduction risks. The methodological approach presented in this paper is a first stage in the development of mathematical methods and algorithms for calculating the expected engineering and economical performance characteristics of new rocket hardware development projects with account for risks. This paper proposes an econometric model for calculating the expected cost of new rocket hardware devel-opment and assessing the risk of cost overrun and delay in the development work. The mathematical model is based on an analytical relationship between the required performance characteristics of a new rocket product and its cost parameters. To make the expected cost calculation and cost overrun risk assessment method more formal, the technical structure of a rocket system is represented as a weighted directed tree graph. The graph vertices are the rocket system itself (the root vertex) and its components. The graph arc weights are sequence of the engineering and economical performance characteristics of the lower-level component included in the nearest vertex of the tree graph. The risk of expected cost overrun and delay in the development work is due to uncertainty in the input data used in the calculation (the variables and the parameters of the econometric model). The data uncertainty is modeled using the fuzzy set theory: the model variables and parameters are represented as fuzzy triangular numbers.

Authors and Affiliations

V. Marchenko, N. Sazina, P. Khorolskyi, A. Voznenko

Keywords

Related Articles

Combined use of random search methods and gradient methods in the optimization of rocket design parameters and control programs

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for optimizing, at the initial design stage, the key charac-teristics of a rocket with a solid-propellant sustainer engine which can follow a ballistic, an aeroballistic,...

Analysis of capabilities of national information market for remote sensing at high resolution as to 2015

The study aim is to analyze the capability of the Ukrainian information market for remote earth sensing at high resolution, and to assess this volume in money terms. Comparison with the similar evaluations conducted by t...

Sound suppressor with periphery labyrinth-vortex profile for diverting gases

The goal of the study whose results are presented in the paper was to develop a new sound suppressor for small arms using a periphery labyrinth-vortex profile for diverting the gases. Distributions of powder gases flows...

Numerical studies in effects of 3d location of high-speed vehicle related to track structure on aerodynamic characteristics

The flow around high-speed vehicle near the track structure was calculated using the three-dimensional Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes equations. For the turbulence simulation the SST model was used. The finite volume me...

On the determination of the tether length for an experimental elec-trodynamic system

The aim of this paper is to analyze the dependence of the tether length of a small experimental electrody-namic space tether system (EDSTS) without additional contactors required for the EDSTS operation in the anode-cath...

Download PDF file
  • EP ID EP462459
  • DOI -
  • Views 68
  • Downloads 0

How To Cite

V. Marchenko, N. Sazina, P. Khorolskyi, A. Voznenko (2018). Model for calculating the expected cost of new rocket hardware development with account for uncertainty factors. Технічна механіка, Техническая механика, Technical Mechanics, 2(2), 30-43. https://europub.co.uk/articles/-A-462459