Model for end stage of liver disease (MELD) is better than the Child-Pugh score for predicting in-hospital mortality related to esophageal variceal bleeding
Journal Title: Annals of Hepatology - Year 2008, Vol 7, Issue 3
Abstract
Aim: The Child Pugh and MELD are good methods for predicting mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. We investigated their performance as risk factors for failure to control bleeding, in-hospital overall mortality and death related to esophageal variceal bleeding episodes. Methods: From a previous collected database, 212 cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding admitted to our hospital were studied. The predictive capability of Child Pugh and MELD scores were compared using c statistics. Results: The Child-Pugh and MELD scores showed marginal capability for predicting failure to control bleeding (the area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) values were < 0.70 for both). The AUROC values for predicting in-hospital overall mortality of Child-Pugh and MELD score were similar: 0.809 (CI 95%, 0.710 - 0.907) and 0.88 (CI 95% 0.77- 0.99,) respectively. There was no significant difference between them (p > 0.05). The AUROC value of MELD for predicting mortality related to variceal bleeding was higher than the Child-Pugh score: 0.905 (CI 95% 0.801-1.00) vs 0.794 (CI 95% 0.676 – 0.913) respectively (p < 0.05). Conclusions: MELD and Child-Pugh were not efficacious scores for predicting failure to control bleeding. The Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar capability for predicting in-hospital overall mortality. Nevertheless, MELD was significantly better than Child-Pugh score for predicting in-hospital mortality related to variceal bleeding.
Authors and Affiliations
Ángel Flores-Rendón, José González-González, Diego García-Compean, Héctor Maldonado-Garza, Aldo Garza-Galindo
Keywords
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