Modeling and forecasting of meat and eggs produsing in Ukraine with seasonal ARIMA-model
Journal Title: Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal - Year 2017, Vol 3, Issue 3
Abstract
The article investigates the problem of seasonality in the production of meat and eggs on the basis of the dynamics of time series of meat and egg production in Ukraine in 2009–2016. After the construction of the input time series in the stationary, parameters of the model were found and the production volumes of meat and eggs for the subsequent periods are predicted. The seasonal autoregressive economic and mathematical models such as SARIMA (seasonally ARIMA) were fitted on the basis of the time series describing the monthly dynamics of meat and egg production in Ukraine (based on statistics for the period 2009–2016). On the basis of these models, the forecasts of these indicators are received for the next two years. By comparing the obtained forecasts with the actual values, the conclusion is drawn about the adequacy of the results obtained.
Authors and Affiliations
Larysa Zomchak, Hryhorii Umrysh
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP225381
- DOI -
- Views 133
- Downloads 0
Wykorzystanie źródeł informacji fachowych przez mieszkańców obszarów wiejskich
W artykule przybliżono źródła i zakres tematyczny informacji fachowych poszukiwanych przez polskich i brytyjskich rolników i mieszkańców wsi, a także przedstawiono analizę porównawczą preferencji tych grup w badanym obsz...
Land use land cover change detection in Gibe Sheleko National Park, Southwestern Ethiopia
Purpose. The main aim of the study was to assess land use land cover change detection (LULCC) from 1990 to 2016 in case of Gibe Sheleko National Park (GSNP), Southwestern Ethiopia. Methodology / approach. Multi-temporal...
Evaluation of efficiency of activity of management staff: content and social and psychological aspects
The purpose of paper is to determine methodological basics for development of content of evaluation of efficiency of activity of management staff and providing important social and psychological peculiarities when carryi...
Adaptation of the agricultural land use to climate change
The purpose of the article – to highlight the results of research on strategic areas of agricultural land adaptation to climate change. For agricultural production and formation of economic soil fertility in Ukraine impa...
Business-model of rural areas development in Ukraine
Purpose. The purpose of this paper is to study the economic aspects and justification of the business-model of rural areas development in Ukraine on the basis of farms, in particular family type, for the growth of agricu...