Modeling and predicting dengue fever cases in key regions of the Philippines using remote sensing data
Journal Title: Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine - Year 2019, Vol 12, Issue 2
Abstract
Objective: To correlate climatic and environmental factors such as land surface temperature, rainfall, humidity and normalized difference vegetation index with the incidence of dengue to develop prediction models for the Philippines using remote-sensing data. Methods: Time-series analysis was performed using dengue cases in four regions of the Philippines and monthly climatic variables extracted from Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation for rainfall, and MODIS for the land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index from 2008-2015. Consistent dataset during the period of study was utilized in Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models to predict dengue incidence in the four regions being studied. Results: The best-fitting models were selected to characterize the relationship between dengue incidence and climate variables. The predicted cases of dengue for January to December 2015 period fitted well with the actual dengue cases of the same timeframe. It also showed significantly good linear regression with a square of correlation of 0.869 5 for the four regions combined. Conclusion: Climatic and environmental variables are positively associated with dengue incidence and suit best as predictor factors using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models. This finding could be a meaningful tool in developing an early warning model based on weather forecasts to deliver effective public health prevention and mitigation programs.
Authors and Affiliations
Maria Ruth Pineda-Cortel
Should pyridoxine be given to breastfed infants whose mothers are on isoniazid?
A mother was recently started on isoniazid and rifampicin for latent tuberculosis infection. She was breastfeeding her 1-monthold infant. There was no indication to treat the child with antituberculous therapy. As isonia...
Lipase inhibitory activity of Lagenaria siceraria fruit as a strategy to treat obesity
Objective: To explore pancreatic lipase inhibitory activity under different extraction conditions in order to track the most potent extract. Methods: The methanolic extract and its fractions in solvents of increasing pol...
Anti-tubercular peptides: A quest of future therapeutic weapon to combat tuberculosis
Tuberculosis (TB) is a symbolic menace to mankind, infecting almost one third of the world's populace and causing over a million mortalities annually. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is the key pathogen of TB that invad...
Plants used in traditional medicine for treatment of malaria by Tetun ethnic people in West Timor Indonesia
Objective: To document the medicinal plants used for the treatment of malaria by the Tetun ethnic people in West Timor–Indonesia. Methods: The ethnobotany and anthropology methods were used in the field surveys. Ninety f...
EPOR mRNA level: A valuable prognostic indicator for patients with ER+ breast cancer
Objective: To explore the expression level and prognostic significance of erythropoietin receptor (EPOR) in patients with breast cancer (BRCA) based on estrogen receptor (ER) status and different molecular subtypes. Meth...