Modeling Natural Gas Prices Volatility
Journal Title: Alphanumeric Journal - Year 2014, Vol 2, Issue 1
Abstract
Researches done so far indicate that oil reserves around the word will most probably have been used up in 50 year’s time. This fact has necessitated the researches and use of new energy sources which can be alternative to oil, the most commonly used energy source around the world. Unforgettable Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1980s, in Ukraine, caused to see the energy glass half empty; and this negative viewpoint has got more acute after the radiation leakage in Fukushima power plant which was damaged in the earthquake in Japan, in 2011. Furthermore, hydroelectric power plants have provoked reaction from many eco-warriors and organizations as they cause ecological disequilibrium through floods in natural habitat. Moreover, it will be pointless to mention coal-fired thermal power plants, which created the term “year without summer” due to the air pollution they caused during Industrial Revolution in England between 18th and 19th centuries. When the topic is energy and its production, market conditions, in which inputs enabling production are dealt in, get affected from various outside/exterior factors. Dynamics of these input markets which are based on delicate balances change constantly; and thus, these changes become influential on aforementioned input prices. Thinking markets selling oil and its derivatives, it becomes more comprehensible that dynamics are significant and related to each other. Without a doubt, one of the energy inputs which are closely dependent on these critical market conditions is natural gas prices. In this study, stability of daily natural gas prices between 1997 and 2012 will be researched and its volatility will be tried to be modeled via ARCH & GARCH model family.
Authors and Affiliations
Fatih Çemrek, Hakkı Polat
Determination of Factors Affecting Internal Migration in Turkey with Panel Data Analysis
Migrations which have a long past as the historyof mankind not only make to the people change their residance but also cause a good deal of social, cultural, economical and political consequences. In order to decrease th...
The Impact Of Information Technologies And Computer Usage On The Student Success In Accounting Courses
In a globalizing world, along with the economic and technological developments, there is also a significant change in the structure of firms. This is in line with developments in all branches of science as well as the sc...
Production Planning With Fuzzy Linear Programming Approach
Borders among countries have been removed and the competition among enterprises has dramatically increased with the globalization process that has been taking place since the last period of the 20’th century. In order to...
Proposal of a Two-Stage Model For Measuring The Port Efficiency And An Implication On Turkish Ports
In the port operating process, it is aimed to use various infrastructure and superstructure inputs for freight handling and serving ships and intended to generate revenue from handled freights and served ships. Therefore...
Evaluation of Personel E-Commerce Applications with Categorical Data Analysis Methods
Categorical Data Analysis Methods, a collection of methods used in the analysis of categorical data sets. Especially in the field of Social Sciences, categorical data sets commonly used in studies is usually nominal, ord...