Modeling of Survival Capability and Spread of Crisis Situations in the Banking Market of Ukraine
Journal Title: Проблеми економіки - Year 2015, Vol 2015, Issue 1
Abstract
The article studies the problem of survival capability and spread of crisis situations in the banking market of Ukraine on the basis of construction of economic and mathematical models for evaluation and analysis of the primary factors of survival capability and spread of panic processes among commercial banks of Ukraine. The authors considered the most general regression model in survival analysis - the Cox proportional intensity model, applied the Kaplan-Meier procedure as a descriptive method for the study of censored data for evaluation of the survival function, construction of lifetime tables, and fitting of survival distribution which allow comparing the survival rates in two and more groups. The proposed model for analysis of survival capability of commercial banks on the basis of paired comparisons of groups of banks with varying levels of financial firmness will likely allow identifying the factors influencing the survival capability as well as comparing the survival capability levels in several groups, singling out the most influential factors in each group in crisis situations that result in bank panics. The article describes realization of the model of spread of crisis situations on the basis of fast-paced dynamic processes with a view to determining the character and signs of the bank panic, as well as corresponding counteraction tools. The panic spread process was simulated which corresponds to the actual process as the synergy effect was assessed and taken into account which is typical for the interaction of "infected specimens". This model allows modeling panics in the banking market and evaluating its responsiveness. The constructed models can be adapted for any bank groups and are capable of taking into account various parameters depending on the analysis character and purpose, which will enable banks to identify the most essential factors of survival and panic spread in the context of instability, financial crisis, increased competition.
Authors and Affiliations
Olena Sergienko, Liubov Filatova, Yana Soldatova
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP116832
- DOI -
- Views 99
- Downloads 1
Analysis of types of inter-budget transfers with respect to solution of regional problems of budget formation
The article analyses the existing (fixed by legislation) types of transfers and their structure with consideration of changes in the Budget Code of Ukraine, in particular, analysis of expenditures, which are taken into a...
Forming a Paradigm of the Health-Oriented Economy
The article presents the author’s vision of forming a paradigm of the health-oriented economy as a conceptual model corresponding to people-centered management of the health sector. The paradigm includes the purpose, obj...
The Model of the Analysis of Asymmetry of Social and Economic Development of Regions
The model of the analysis of asymmetry of social and economic development of regions is offered in the article. Based on methods of the multivariate statistical analysis, the model allows to reveal sources of the disbala...
Analysis of Directions of Increase of Energy Supply of Kharkov Region
In article the problem of energy supply as one of the pillars of national security and sustainable development of Ukraine. We analyze the situation in this area in the country and in the Kharkiv region. Analyzes the rese...
Models of Selecting the Tools to Ensure a Balance of the Socio-Economic Development of the Regions
The current stage of the national economy development is characterized by aggravation of contradictions, increasing imbalances at the regional level. The increasing unevenness in regional development, on the one hand, is...