Modeling the Effects of Vaccination and Treatment on Pandemic Influenza
Journal Title: The AAPS Journal - Year 2011, Vol 13, Issue 3
Abstract
In this paper, we demonstrate the uses of some simple mathematical models for the study of disease dynamics in a pandemic situation with a focus on influenza. These models are employed to evaluate the effectiveness of various control programs via vaccination and antiviral treatment. We use susceptible-, infectious-, recovered-type epidemic models consisting of ordinary differential equations. These models allow us to derive threshold conditions that can be used to assess the effectiveness of vaccine and drug use and to determine disease outcomes. Simulations are helpful for examining the potential consequences of control options under different scenarios. Particularly, results from models with constant parameters and models with time-dependent parameter functions are compared, demonstrating the significant differences in model outcomes. Results suggest that the effectiveness of vaccination and drug treatment can be very sensitive to factors including the time of introduction of the pathogen into the population, the beginning time of control programs, and the levels of control measures. More importantly, in some cases, the benefits of vaccination and antiviral use might be significantly compromised if these control programs are not designed appropriately. Mathematical models can be very useful for understanding the effects of various factors on the spread and control of infectious diseases. Particularly, the models can help identify potential adverse effects of vaccination and drug treatment in the case of pandemic influenza.
Authors and Affiliations
Zhilan Feng, Sherry Towers, Yiding Yang
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP681328
- DOI 10.1208/s12248-011-9284-7
- Views 64
- Downloads 0
Electronic and resonance effects on the lonization of structural analogues of efavirenz
The solubility of 4 analogues of efavirenz was studied as a function of pH. The study evaluated the ionization behavior and determined the relative contribution of electronegative substituents versus resonance effects on...
Elastic Liposomal Formulation for Sustained Delivery of Colchicine: In Vitro Characterization and In Vivo Evaluation of Anti-gout Activity
Colchicine, an alkaloid found in extracts of the plants Colchicum autumnale and Gloriosa superb, is effective in the treatment of acute gout and dermatological conditions like leuko-cytoclastic vasculitis, psoriasis, and...
Advancing Product Quality: a Summary of the Inaugural FDA/PQRI Conference
On September 16 and 17, 2014, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Product Quality Research Institute (PQRI) inaugurated their Conference on Evolving Product Quality. The Conference is conceived as an annual forum...
Biomarkers, metabonomics, and drug development: Can inborn errors of metabolism help in understanding drug toxicity?
Application of “omics” technology during drug discovery and development is rapidly evolving. This review evaluates the current status and future role of “metabonomics” as a tool in the dru...
Bioequivalence for Locally Acting Nasal Spray and Nasal Aerosol Products: Standard Development and Generic Approval
Demonstrating bioequivalence (BE) for nasal spray/aerosol products for local action has been very challenging because the relationship between the drug in systemic circulation and the drug reaching the nasal site of acti...