Modeling the Threshold Level of the Internal Debt in Interrelation with Budget Deficit and the External Component of the Government Debt
Journal Title: Проблеми економіки - Year 2014, Vol 2014, Issue 3
Abstract
The objective of the article is construction of a model for assessment and prediction of the internal government debt considering the trends and consistent patterns of its external component, as well as provision of a rationale for conversion of the external government debt into the internal debt. The article elaborates on the essence of the theoretical model of assessment and prediction of the internal government debt considering the trends and consistent patterns of its external component. The behavior of the total government debt of Ukraine from 2007 till 2013 is analyzed. The structure of the government debt of Ukraine as of 01 January 2014 is considered in terms of repayment currencies. A technical approach is proposed for modeling the relations connecting the external, internal government debt, aggregate output, budget deficit. A study of the effect of the size of budget deficit, the external component of government debt on the internal debt of a state is conducted, which, unlike the known values, allows determination of the threshold level of the internal debt and the influence exerted on it by interest rate indices, exchange rate and GDP change rates, forgiveness of the external debt. A model is proposed for determination of the threshold level of the internal debt depending on its "loading" created by the external component, and conditions are formulated determining practicality of conversion of the external debt into the internal debt.
Authors and Affiliations
Ivan Plets
Keywords
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