MODELLING AND DIAGNOSTICS OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF UKRAINE’S MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM (STOCHASTIC APPROACH)
Journal Title: Держава та регіони. Серія: Економіка та підприємництво - Year 2018, Vol 6, Issue 105
Abstract
The article conducts research of sustainability of Ukraine’s macroeconomic system that is based on a stochastic approach. Modern tendencies of development, constant transformations of socio-economic systems under the influence of dynamic changes in the external environment cause diversification and divergence of evolutionary processes in these systems. These changes are caused by many factors; one of the main is the dynamism of changes in economic systems, constant market transformations, the combination of evolution and involution in the processes of socio-economic transformation. The use of a stochastic approach for macroeconomic modelling allows solving several problems of diagnostics and management of their sustainability, namely: to isolate systemic factors of negative and positive influence on the stability of the macroeconomic system, to construct causative models that allow diagnosing the state of stability of the system under the influence of changes of individual factors, obtain predictive models of the states of the macroeconomic system. The construction of a stochastic model is a rather complicated process due to the fact that its construction requires the processing and analysis of a significant amount of numerical data, to extrapolate the tendencies that took place in the past. The structure of the developed method of sustainability modelling on the new development of stochastic models for diagnosing the development of the macroeconomic system goes away from seven stages. Thus, at the first stage of the study, the purpose and objectives of the study are determined. At the second stage, all possible elements of the socio-economic system and indicators that characterize them are determined. The third stage of the developed method of stochastic modelling provides for the systematization of elements of the socio-economic system and components of the external environment based on the study of stochastic interactions and interaction between them. At the fourth stage of the method, the formation of a stochastic model and the evaluation of its parameters are carried out. At the fifth stage of the method for better visualization of stochastic models constructed, diagnostics and management of the stability of the macroeconomic system, a block diagram of stochastic connections is constructed. At the sixth stage of the method, a selection of forward-looking variables is conducted in order to construct a stochastic model for forecasting the stability of the macroeconomic system of Ukraine. At the last, seventh stage, an analysis of the stability limits of the system, as well as decomposition of the components of the stochastic model to predict the state of stability of the system for future periods and determine the main parameters affect the state of stability. The proposed method allows investigating the impact of individual sectors of the economy on the state of stability of the macroeconomic system, as well as predicting this state for future periods.
Authors and Affiliations
D. S. Revenko
Keywords
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