Modelling and Forecasting of Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Multiple Linear Regression Model and Quadratic Regression Model with Interactions
Journal Title: Mathematical and Software Engineering - Year 2017, Vol 3, Issue 2
Abstract
In this paper statistical analysis of residential electricity demand in Nigeria is presented. Multiple linear regression model and quadratic regression model with interactions are applied to estimate residential electricity consumption and to forecast long-term residential electricity demand in Nigeria. Population and temperature are used as explanatory variables. The results show the Quadratic Regression with interaction has RMSE of 52.77 and r-square value of 0.9389 which indicates that 93.89% of the variation in residential electricity consumption is explained by the model. On the other hand , the multiple linear regression model has RMSE of 69.97 and r-square value of 0.873 which indicates that 87.3% of the variation in residential electricity consumption is explained by the model. Essentially, the quadratic regression model with interaction with lower RMSE and higher r-square value is selected and then used to forecast the residential electricity demand in Nigeria from 2015 to 2029. From the results, the Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria will reach 6521.09 MW/h in the year 2029. Furthermore, the results show that population has a positive sign and it is significant in the short run and in the long run forecasting. On the other hand, the result also revealed insignificant moderately weak relationship between residential electricity consumption and temperature.
Authors and Affiliations
Isaac A. Ezenugu, Swinton C. Nwokonko, Idorenyin Markson
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP327320
- DOI -
- Views 145
- Downloads 0
Inverse Iterative Methods for Solving Nonlinear Equations
In his work we present an approach for obtaining new iterative methods for solving nonlinear equations. This approach can be applicable to arbitrary iterative process which is linearly or quadratically convergent. Analys...
Comparative analysis of Mechanisms for Categorization and Moderation of User Generated Text Contents on a Social E-Governance Forum
This paper presents a comparative analysis of two mechanisms for an automated categorization and moderation of User Generated Text Contents (UGTCs) on a social e-governance forum. Posts on the forum are categorized into...
Empirical Valuation of Multi-Parameters and RMSE-Based Tuning Approaches for the Basic and Extended Stanford University Interim (SUI) Propagation Models
In this paper, the prediction performance evaluation of Stanford University Interim (SUI) Model and the extended SUI model are presented. More importantly, the effectiveness of two model tuning approaches, namely, RMSE-b...
Modified Algorithm for Steganalysis
This paper proposes a modified algorithm for steganalysis based on data compression. The experimental results verify that the proposed steganalysis can detect the altered images with high accuracy.
Determination of Atmospheric Effective Earth Radius Factor (k-factor) Under Clear Air in Lagos, Nigeria
Due to it cost effectiveness and ease of accessibility, as well as adaptability, radio wave communication at microwave frequencies has earned enormous attention over time. Importantly, secondary radio variables remained...