Modelling and Predicting the Fiscal Pressure Indicator in the European Union
Journal Title: Academic Journal of Economic Studies - Year 2015, Vol 1, Issue 1
Abstract
The main goal of this research is to model and predict the fiscal pressure indicator and the real GDP rate in the European Union during 1996-2013 using the vectorial autoregressive approach. According to Granger test for causality, only the real GDP rate is a cause of the weight tax in GDP, the relationship not being reciprocal. The fiscal pressure volatility is due mainly to the evolution of this indicator, but the influence decreases in time, not descending under 82%. More than 41% of the variation in real growth is explained by the fiscal pressure volatility starting with the 6th lag. The static and deterministic simulation generated the best predictions of the fiscal pressure indicator on the horizon 2011-2013.
Authors and Affiliations
Mihaela Simionescu, Mirela Niculae
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP177723
- DOI -
- Views 141
- Downloads 0
Do Globalization and Economic Freedom Trigger Economic Growth in MENA Countries? Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications
The present paper examines the impact of globalization and economic freedom on economic growth in 14 MENA countries over the period 1995-2011, through the use of panel data analysis. According to Hausman test, the fixed...
Energy Use and Growth of Manufacturing Sector: Evidence from Turkey
This study investigates the relationship between Energy use and the growth of the Turkish Manufacturing Sector, using Vector Error Correction and Granger causality, between 1960 and 2015. The research found a long-run as...
Financial Inclusion and Poverty Reduction: Selected Approaches and Implications for Mali's Choice
Today, it is recognized that financial inclusion is one of the most effective ways to significantly reduce poverty, through its easy access to means of payment, financial products and money transfer. Financial inclusion...
Hyundai’s Customer Satisfaction Analysis in Azerbaijan Market
In modern economies, level of customer satisfaction is main indicator which intends to show organization’s position in comparison with its competitors. Determining customer satisfaction level allows any organization to d...
Financial Management of Economic Entity from the Perspective of Alternative Approach
Throughout the study the financial management presented is divided into three directions, namely financial analysis, financial planning and financial strategy, focusing on increasing the quality of financial management c...