Modelling Extinction of Polio Transmission Agents by Stochastic Differential Equations
Journal Title: Annals. Computer Science Series - Year 2018, Vol 16, Issue 2
Abstract
Eradicating poliomyelitis has been a major health concern to stakeholders the world over. In this study, we have developed a pair of stochastic equations for the extinction probability functions in two types of human transmission agents namely: infectives (types 1) and carriers (type 2). By solving the equations, the result shows that with only one asymptomatic carrier in a population, eradication is possible when (ß22+ß21+µ)2>4ß22µ where ßij is the Poisson rate at which type i transmission agent produces type j transmission agent and µ is the mean infectious period of the asymptomatic carriers.
Authors and Affiliations
Johnson Gbolagunte OLAWUWO, Oreofe Ugbebor OLABISI
Keywords
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