Modelling GDP in Nigeria using Bayesian Model Averaging
Journal Title: International Journal of Applied Science and Mathematics - Year 2018, Vol 5, Issue 3
Abstract
Statistical modelling has played significant roles in various field of endeavors and this has helped policy makers and planners to take decisive decision. This study attempts to model Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nigeria using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). It sought to know factors that have contributed to the growth of GDP as well as best model for modelling GDP in Nigeria. Essentially, empirical growth research faces a high degree of model uncertainty. Therefore, this study adopts the use of Bayesian Model Averaging in a bid to overcome the model uncertainty in a single model selection process. We obtained estimates of the posterior probabilities via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) which was further used as weights to model averaged estimates and predictions. Each model was weighted accordingly with a model prior and a parameter prior. Model uncertainty and posterior inclusion probability of each predictor was determined. The result shows that Exchange Rate is the most important variable affecting the GDP of the Nigerian economy followed by Interest Rate. The best model consists of an average of two predictors with Exchange Rate as one of the major contributor. The top five models were checked and it explained 40.16% uncertainty, which reveals the risk of depending on single model prediction. Every predictor, irrespective of its minute contribution provides some information which may be lost if the predictor is not considered
Authors and Affiliations
O. B. Akanbi, et al.
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP504723
- DOI -
- Views 126
- Downloads 0
Gravitation - Flat Power Field
A new principle of origin and the nature of the action of gravity forces are proposed. Forces of universal attraction have plane-symmetrical directions. On this basis, it becomes possible to reconsider certain regulariti...
Modeling of Tidal Lane Macroscopic Traffic Flow Based on Variable Cell Transfer Model
The effective measure to alleviate urban tidal traffic problems is to set up tidal lanes. However, most of the tidal lanes are currently set up in a simple form by moving the isolation barriers and manual command. In vie...
Research of Optimizing Dynamic Performance Shift Schedule for Five-Geared Automatic Transmission-by-Wire in Vehicle
The shift schedule of the automatic transmission is the core technology of the control system, and the choice of control parameters directly affects the dynamic and economy of the vehicle. In this paper, the research on...
Medical Image Segmentation using Texture Information.
Medical image segmentation is an important step to extract an abnormalities regions such as tumor or lesion. This paper presents a segmentation method for medical image using texture information. The proposed method extr...
On the Fisher Cumulative Distribution Function.
In this paper, a hand-calculation formula for the cumulative distribution function of the Fisher distribution with positive integer degrees of freedoms is proposed. The proposed method is based on using the differentiati...