MODELLING OF SCENARIOS OF THE CRISIS PHENOMENA TRANSFER AMONG FINANCIAL MARKETS
Journal Title: Baltic Journal of Economic Studies - Year 2017, Vol 3, Issue 2
Abstract
The phenomenon of crisis transference among financial markets in different countries is especially evident during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Abnormal imbalances emerged in the market of secondary financial instruments in the United States in the second half of 2006 and quickly spread to the financial markets of most countries of the world. However, the rate of fall of the main macroeconomic indicators, the duration of the latent period (the time between the date of the beginning of the financial crisis in the source country and date of the recorded fall in GDP of the country that is subjected to “contagion” (Strelchenko, 2016), and recovery period are substantially different. To generate an effective economic policy actually, there is a task of determining the possible scenarios of transferring crisis. The research subject is a process of transfer of the crisis phenomena among the financial markets of countries with different levels of economic development. Methodology. The paper presents the results of a study on the differentiation of the financial markets reactions to the crisis transfer. To build the corresponding classification model, self-organization Kohonen neural networks are used. The purpose of this work is to build a neural network model for clustering economies according to the response to external financial shocks. This model allows predicting the scenarios of transferring crisis among financial markets. Conclusion. As a result of the study, there is built a neural network with the architecture of the Kohonen map. The neural network has one hidden layer consisting of six neurons and has a hexagonal structure. Six clusters describe six possible scenarios of the economy dynamics under the impact of the transfer of crises. Cluster number one and two unite countries characterized by a short period of economic recovery and return of the main macroeconomic indicators to the precrisis levels. A longer recovery period and high volatility in exchange rates, gross domestic product, and decline in export-import operations characterize the third and fourth clusters of SOM. As for the countries that were in the last two clusters (including Ukraine), then the result of the crisis phenomena transfer is that the average amplitude of the fall in macroeconomic indicators exceeded 15% for the sixth cluster, and 9% for cluster number 5.
Authors and Affiliations
Inna Strelchenko
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP635027
- DOI 10.30525/2256-0742/2017-3-2-136-140
- Views 111
- Downloads 0
DAMAGE COMPENSATION AS THE WAY OF PROTECTION OF AUTHORS' PROPERTY RIGHTS: THE ECONOMIC AND LEGAL ASPECT
The objective of the article is to determine the economic and legal aspects of compensation for damages caused by the violation of the authors’ property rights in conformity with the national evaluation standards in the...
SPECIFICATIONS OF THE SOURCES OF SECURING INSURANCE COMPANY’S FINANCIAL STABILITY
The purpose is to generalize the methodological concepts of domestic researchers in sources of insurance companies' financial stability provision. The need in developing and deepening both theory and practice upon the is...
THE ROLE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIAGNOSTICS IN AN ENTERPRISE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
The purpose of the article is to justify the role of socio-economic diagnostics of the enterprise as an information base for managerial decision-making in the conditions of integration and globalization processes. The su...
TRANSFORMATION OF METHODICAL MARKETING APPROACHES TO THE INVESTIGATION OF THE PROBLEM OF FARMING AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES IN THE GRAIN MARKET IN GLOBALIZATION CHALLENGES
The purpose of writing the article is to justify the methodological principles and recommendations for the functioning of agricultural enterprises-producers of grain in the target markets for its sale under the condition...
DIRECTIONS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICES MARKET OF UKRAINE
Development of the financial services market is an important component of the national economy’s development. Within this market, credit and investment resources are formed, which are the basis of economic development of...