Modelling the Frequency of Depression using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method
Journal Title: Journal of Clinical and Diagnostic Research - Year 2018, Vol 12, Issue 10
Abstract
ABSTRACT Introduction: Depression is a worldwide concern causing lots of adverse social consequences. Aim: To assess the stochastic processes of depression frequency through statistical modelling. Materials and Methods: The data contained the processes of depression frequency in Hamadan from April 2008 to March 2016. A total of 3252 patients, according to psychiatrist diagnosed based on DSM-IV criteria, were accounted. To model and forecast the depression incidence frequency, the time series analysis method, Holt-Winter exponential smoothing, was applied. Results: After a considerable decrease in the last months of 2010 which was followed by an increase in early 2011, a constant series of frequencies happened until 2015. The first months of 2015 are the beginning of the increase in the development of depression. Conclusion: Present findings demonstrated an increase in the incidence of depression during 2016-2018. The Holt-winter exponential smoothing method can be used as an appropriate statistical tool to analyse and forecast such data.
Authors and Affiliations
Payam Amini, Ali Ghaleiha, Elaheh Zarean, Majid Sadeghifar, Mohammad Ebrahim Ghaffari, Zahra Taslimi, Saeid Yazdi-Ravandi
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP529975
- DOI 10.7860/JCDR/2018/35765.12085
- Views 69
- Downloads 0
Papillary Renal Cell Carcinoma Presenting as a Perinephric Abscess
ABSTRACT Typically, Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) presents with distinguishing features of flank pain, abdominal palpable mass and haematuria. Other clinical symptoms include weight loss, anorexia and metastasis to the lung...
Pneumococcal Vaccination among Adults with Respiratory Diseases-Indications, Adherence and Roadblocks
ABSTRACT Introduction: Globally, invasive pneumococcal disease poses a major challenge to the health system and causes significant economic burden. Pneumococcal vaccination is a recommended and well adhered practice amon...
Clinicopathological Evaluation of 223 Cases of Mature Cystic Teratoma, Ovary: 25-Year Experience in a Single Tertiary Care Centre in India
Introduction: Mature Cystic Teratoma (MCT) is the most common benign neoplasm of the ovary constituting 10-20% of all the ovarian tumours. Although, much has been published about ovarian teratomas, in English literature,...
Prevalence of Root Canal Configuration Types Based on Number of Canals at the Apical Third of Mandibular First Molar Roots
ABSTRACT Introduction: Mandibular first molars are the earliest permanent posterior teeth to erupt and are, hence, most frequently in need of endodontic treatment. Success of endodontic treatment depends on three-dimensi...
Necrotizing Fasciitis: A Rare Complication of Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis
Necrotizing pancreatitis occurs in 10 to 25% of patients requiring hospital admission for acute pancreatitis and carries a high mortality rate. Necrotizing pancreatitis can cause a spectrum of complications. However, we...