Modification of the PERT method for project time evaluation taking into account unexpected delays
Journal Title: Восточно-Европейский журнал передовых технологий - Year 2018, Vol 4, Issue 3
Abstract
<p>The PERT-based method for estimation of project implementation time, which uses Rayleigh distribution instead of β-distribution, was proposed. The modification of the PERT, which made it possible to involve the quality of an expert into the assessment and to simplify the examination procedure was proposed. We offered a new method for project evaluation, based on the properties of Rayleigh distribution and taking into consideration the peculiarities of plotting a network diagram in IT- projects with a high degree of work detailing in the face of the existing possibilities of extending the time of particular tasks. Three different methods project time evaluation, based on two different statistics and two different methods for calculation of project time, were compared. Comparison was performed with the view to search for the simplest method in terms of information acquisition and suitable for algorithmic implementation. It was shown that the estimation result is more consistent with specificity of complex IT-projects and makes it possible to reduce the number of iterations within project implementation time, as well as to use an objective assessment of the main sources of errors in determining time, giving evaluation with the probability that was assigned beforehand. It was shown that the estimate of the most probable and minimum time of project completion during the calculation by the new method is consistent with the results of the calculations using the PERT method, while the evaluation of maximum time differs strongly, as the new method is more pessimistic in this sense, and it matches better the characteristics of complex IT-projects that have a high probability of unexpected delays during implementation. We draw conclusions on the possible application of results in creation of a project time evaluation system based on the methods of artificial intelligence, and determined parameters for setting such a system.</p>
Authors and Affiliations
Vladimir Litvinov, Andrii Moskaliuk
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP528060
- DOI 10.15587/1729-4061.2018.140752
- Views 70
- Downloads 0
Enhancement of productivity of random sequences generation for information protection systems
<p class="a"><span lang="EN-US">The ways of enhancement of productivity of generation of random sequences, derived from physical sources for information protection systems were substantiated. This is necessary because to...
Analysis of convergence of adaptive singlestep algorithms for the identification of nonstationary objects
<p>The study deals with the problem of identification of non-stationary parameters of a linear object which can be described by first-order Markovian model, with the help of the simplest in computational terms single-ste...
Analysis of the efficiency of spacetime access in the mobile communication systems based on an antenna array
<p class="Default">We performed analysis of effectiveness of various methods and criteria of space-time processing of the signals by an adaptive antenna array with a view to identifying the algorithm suitable for using i...
Studying the effect of the integrated bread baking improver "Mineral Freshness Super" on consumer properties of wheat bread
<p>Scientists from the National University of Food Technologies (Ukraine) developed the integrated bread baking improver "Mineral Freshness Super" whose formulation includes nutritional supplements with the GRAS status....
Effect of heat treatment and cryogenics on hardness of ductile cast iron microstructure (FCD50)
<p>The results of researches of possibilities of increasing the mechanical properties of pig iron with ball-bearing graphite of brand FCD-50 by the combined heat treatment are described. The scheme of multistage heat tre...