Short Term Weather -Dependent Load Forecasting using Fuzzy Logic Technique
Journal Title: International Journal of Engineering Sciences & Research Technology - Year 30, Vol 3, Issue 5
Abstract
Electric load forecasting has become a very decisive in power system studies for its systematic functioning. Precise short term load forecasting aids the electric utilities for the determination regarding unit commitment, reducing spinning reserve capacity, maintenance schedules and other optimal energy exchange plans properly. Conventional methods suffer from the problem of complexity of the estimation procedure and substantial database support requirements. In this paper, a feasibility study of the implementation of fuzzy logic model for short term load forecasting is carried out. The proposed methodology uses fuzzy reasoning decision rules that capture the nonlinear relationships between inputs and outputs. The input data includes historical load (hourly & daily), physical variables hourly data like temperature, humidity and wind speed. The proposed fuzzy based logical model has been used to estimate the daily peak load forecasts over one week period comprising four working days and two days of weekend. The model is tested with two different set of membership functions namely triangular and trapezoidal with different amounts of function overlapping on the actual data obtained from the state load dispatch centre. Test results for daily peak load forecasts based on historical data indicate that the generated forecasts is quite similar in accuracy to more complicated methods and a mean absolute percentage error less than 3% is reported.
Authors and Affiliations
Monika Gupta
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP163885
- DOI -
- Views 91
- Downloads 0
STUDY OF IRANIAN-ISLAMIC IDENTITY IN CONTEMPORARY ARCHITECTURE CONSIDERING CULTURAL DEVELOPMENTS) CASE OF NEW TOWN OF PADIDESHANDIZ)
The art of architecture is one of the factors for evaluating the nation's culture. considering the cultural and artistic back ground of Iran and the existence of supreme works in the ancient and Islamic architecture of...
DESIGN OF LINEAR SWITCHED RELUCTANCE MOTOR(LSRM) FOR RAILWAYS
Switched-reluctance motors have gained attention in the variable-speed drive market. The savings in manufacturing cost of the motor due to its simplicity of construction and use of minimum number of switching devi...
LEONARDO DA VINCI’S INGENIOUS WAY OF CARVING ONE-FOURTH AREA OF A SEGMENT IN A CIRCLE
Hippocrates of Chios (450 BC) has squared lunes, semicircle and full circle. Forgetting his squaring of circle, and 1. believing that 3.1415926 of polygon as Pi of the circle, 2. accepting wrong interpretation of...
Design and Engineering of an Innovative Bituminized Jute Paving Fabric for Potential Application in Road Construction
Geotextiles are mainly made of man-made fibresbut since the last two decades natural fibre made geotextilelike jute geotextile have been found to be effective in improving geotechnical characteristics of soil and...
A MINI SCALE REACTOR FOR BATCH PRODUCTION OF PALM BASED POLYOL
An investigation on a batch production of palm kernel oil polyol (PKO-p) was conducted via esterification and condensation.The process design was thoroughly studied as a preliminary step for future upscaling. The...