New Estimation Rules for Unknown Parameters on Holt-Winters Multiplicative Method
Journal Title: Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences - Year 2017, Vol 49, Issue 2
Abstract
The Holt-Winters method is a well-known forecasting method used in time-series analysis to forecast future data when a trend and seasonal pattern is detected. There are two variations, i.e. the additive and the multiplicative method. Prior study by Vercher, et al. in [1] has shown that choosing the initial conditions is very important in exponential smoothing models, including the Holt-Winters method. Accurate estimates of initial conditions can result in better forecasting results. In this research, we propose new estimation rules for initial conditions for the Holt-Winters multiplicative method. The estimation rules were derived from the original initial conditions combined with the weighted moving average method. From the experimental results it was found that the new approach of the Holt-Winters multiplicative method can outperform the original Holt-Winters multiplicative method.
Authors and Affiliations
Seng Hansun
Inclusion Properties of Orlicz and Weak Orlicz Spaces
In this paper we discuss the structure of Orlicz spaces and weak Orlicz spaces on R^n. We obtain some necessary and sufficient conditions for the inclusion property of these spaces. One of the keys is to compute the norm...
On The Partition Dimension of Disconnected Graphs
For a graph G=(V,E), a partition Ω=\{O_1,O_2,…,O_k \} of the vertex set V is called a resolving partition if every pair of vertices u,v∈V(G) have distinct representations under Ω. The partition dimension of G is the mini...
C-Γ-hyperideal Theory in Ordered Γ-semihypergroups
Our purpose in this article is to characterize the properties of C-Γ-hyperideals in ordered Γ-semihypergroups. As an application of the results of this paper, the corresponding results of ordered semihypergroups can also...
Anti-inflammatory Activities and Gastric Ulcer-inducing Properties of Tetraacetylquercetin and Tetrapivaloylquercetin
Quercetin (3,3’4’,5,7-pentahydroxyflavone) has been reported to show anti-inflammatory activity. However, its low oral bioavailability limits the application of quercetin in therapy. Ester derivatives of quercetin have b...
Study on Transport Properties of Chitosan Membrane in Different Types of Electrolytes
In this study, the electrical properties of chitosan membrane in different types of electrolytes were investigated by analyzing the current-voltage (I‑V) curve. The membrane used was chitosan membrane 2%. The different e...