NUMERICAL EVALUATION OF THE RISK OF INJURY FOR FATAL ACCIDENTS AND THE NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE WORKERS DISABILITY DAYS
Journal Title: Вестник научного центра по безопасности работ в угольной промышленности - Year 2017, Vol 0, Issue 2
Abstract
At present, there is a problem of numerical assessment of injury risks for enterprises with small statistics of injuries. Some of the most popular methods of risk assessment and their methods (butterfly tie, failure tree analysis, Delphi method) are given here. To solve the problem of the lack of quantitative (and not qualitative, as in most known methods of risk assessment) values of risk assessment, we are developing a methodology for the numerical assessment of injury risks. The analysis of the method for assessing the risks of injury, in which the risk is defined as the product of the probability of the event to its consequences, and, the probability of the event and the consequences are described by different functions, while in our approach we managed to associate together the probability of harm to health and its severity. The analysis showed that the assessment of the risks of injury by the proposed method is possible not only for large enterprises with extensive statistics of injuries, but also for companies in which the registered traumatism is very small or there is no fatal injury at all. This article presents examples of the calculation of injury risks for enterprises with small injury statistics by two different methods: for fatal injuries and the number of injuries, taking into account the days of incapacity for work. With the help of Pearson's criterion, it is shown that both methods of numerical evaluation of injury risks do not depend on each other and that in turn widens the scope of possible application of the proposed technique.
Authors and Affiliations
A. S. Voroshilov
Keywords
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