On a methodological approach to the problem of quantitative risk as-sessment for space hardware development projects (Part I)
Journal Title: Технічна механіка, Техническая механика, Technical Mechanics - Year 2018, Vol 1, Issue 1
Abstract
The aim of this work is to construct a theoretical basis for the development of methods, algorithms, and software for quantitative assessment of new space hardware development project risks that are due to uncertainty factors. The presented methodological approach to quantitative risk assessment is a synthesis of mathematical uncertainty modeling and simulation modeling, the former being constructed on the basis of the fuzzy set theory, the possibility theory, and time series forecasting methods. This part of the paper (Part I) presents a general theory for quantitative assessment of space hardware development project risks and theoretical basics for retrospective source data uncertainty modeling by counterpart products. A practical implementation of the presented results will make it possible to significantly improve the quality of the feasibility study of new home space hardware development projects.
Authors and Affiliations
A. Alpatov, V. Marchenko, P. Khorolskyi, N. Sazina, L. Zhukova
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP461859
- DOI -
- Views 79
- Downloads 0
Estimation of dynamic loads on a reference train with a passive safety system in its collisions with an identical train and a freight car
New high-speed passenger cars for 1520 mm gage railways must be designed taking into account passive safety systems (PSSs) for collision protection. A PSS includes energy absorbing devices (EADs), which protect the passe...
Analysis of the effect of turbulent viscosity models on the calculation of rocket engine combustion product jet flows
This paper reports the results of calculations of turbulent gas jet flows with the use of an algebraic turbu-lence model ( Safronov’s model) and two one-parameter differential turbulence models (Sekundov’s model and the...
Study of gas and gas-dispersed flows in support of the development of space hardware objects and technological processes
This paper presents the mathematical models, algorithms, and programs developed in the past five years at the Institute of Technical Mechanics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space of Ukraine...
Methodic approach to calculations and selection of parameters of splashing system for propellant preparation
One of the important problems is to provide the required parameters of propellant components, which are attained by the propellant preparation. This problem is resolved by facilities for spacecraft propellant filling. In...
On the method of simulation of uncertainties of technical and economical data for problems of evaluation of research projects
The paper presents a formalized method of the simulation of uncertainties of the numerical reference data applicable to calculations of the technical and economical parameters of a research project and realization of the...