On the Need for Cognitive Closure and Judgmental Trend Forecasting
Journal Title: Argumenta Oeconomica Cracoviensia - Year 2017, Vol 1, Issue 17
Abstract
The paper considers the following hypothesis: humans’ need for cognitive closure reduces the usage of historical observations in judgmental forecasts only in horizontal trends. To test this hypothesis, three studies were conducted. In each, participants forecasted the next, unknown observation using the previous time series. The analysis concentrated on trend analysis and how the trends in historical data are used as the basis for forecasting depending on psychological traits, in particular cognitive closure.
Authors and Affiliations
Marcin Czupryna, Elżbieta Aniela Kubińska, Łukasz Markiewicz
Keywords
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- EP ID EP292148
- DOI 10.15678/AOC.2017.1702
- Views 97
- Downloads 0
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