Panel Cointegration Analysis of Consumer Confidence and Personal Consumption in the European Union
Journal Title: Journal of Business Economics and Management - Year 2009, Vol 10, Issue 2
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between consumer confidence, personal consumption, and other relevant economic and financial variables for 9 European Union countries. It is argued that consumer confidence is an early indicator of future rates of growth in an economy through the consumption channel. Therefore, an increase in consumer confidence should translate into higher rates of consumption in the future, leading to a possible rise in economic growth. Our panel data analysis, conducting panel unit root tests and panel cointegration tests, tries to measure the effects of changes in consumer sentiment on personal consumption expenditures while accounting for other significant economic and financial variables such as stock exchange index, real exchange rates and interest rates. The empirical findings show the existence of a longrun relationship. Thus, consumers are able to detect early signals about future rates of economic growth as they contribute through the consumption channel.
Authors and Affiliations
Sadullah Çelik, Yasemin Özerkek
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP84512
- DOI 10.3846/1611-1699.2009.10.161-16
- Views 97
- Downloads 0
Integrated DSS for Strategic Planning in Public Institutions
The paper deals with a problem of support to the strategic planning decisionmaking in public institutions. In special literature there are various approaches proposed to what decision support system (DSS) is rational to...
Application of Game Theory for Duopoly Market Analysis
The paper provides the analysis of game theory models application to identify duopoly market equilibrium (quantities sold and market prices), to evaluate and compare the results of enterprises in a market. The purpose of...
Integrated Management of Marketing Risk and Efficiency
There are two principal problems arising for marketing management: first—the increase of marketing ability to use effectively its resources, and second—to inventory the risks influencing marketing activity in order to de...
Russian Public Sector Reform: The Impact on University Accounting
The last few decades have witnessed substantial efforts to reinvent the state worldwide. The Russian state is no exception to this global trend. At the outset of a new millennium, the need for renewal of the post-Soviet...
Swot Methodology: A State-of-the-Art Review for the Past, A Framework for the Future
The SWOT analysis is the process of exploring the internal and external environments of an organization and extracting convenient strategies based on its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. This paper prese...