Predicting the development of acute bacterial bronchitis in young children
Journal Title: Здоров`я дитини - Year 2018, Vol 13, Issue 4
Abstract
Seventy four young children with acute bronchitis (34 — with viral bronchitis and 40 with bacterial bronchitis) were examined using Acute Bronchitis Severity Score, with a bacteriological study of nasopharyngeal aspirate and determination of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), vitamin D-binding protein, human bactericidal/permeability-increasing protein, catelicidin LL-37, β1-defensin, lactoferrin levels. The influence of various factors on the development of bacterial bronchitis was evaluated with the help of factorial and cluster analysis. It was found that 6 factors were of the greatest importance: the vitamin D supplementation, anemia factor, iatrogenic factor, inflammation factor, immune factor and maternal factor. To develop a prognostic mathematical model of acute bacterial bronchitis occurrence in young children, we used the equations of logistic regression, which included 9 predictors (the day of hospitalization from the onset of the disease, the day of administration of antibiotic therapy from the onset of the disease, the vitamin D and lactoferrin content in the blood serum, the preventive use of vitamin D, the level of hemoglobin and leukocytes in peripheral blood, acute respiratory infections mother have suffered during pregnancy, score for the assessment of the severity of the disease). The method of genetic algorithm was used to select 4 most significant factors: the day of hospitalization from the onset of disease, the day of administration of antibacterial therapy from the onset of disease, the content of vitamin D and lactoferrin in the blood serum. A decrease in the number of factors from 9 to 4 did not lead to a significant change in the predictive qualities of the model, as evidenced by the area under the ROC curve of the logistic regression equation and the evaluation of the discriminating ability of the model with the Gini coefficient. The sensitivity of the model was 88.9 %, specificity — 78.9 %. The analysis confirmed that the state of vitamin D supplementation, early hospitalization, irrational use of antibiotic therapy, immune disorders and the nature of the course of antenatal period made the priority contribution to the development of acute bacterial bronchitis in young children. The detected risk factors and the results of prognostic modeling should be used to identify children, who are at high risk for the development of acute bronchitis of bacterial origin.
Authors and Affiliations
G. O. Lezhenko, O. E. Pashkova, H. V. Kraynya
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP344240
- DOI 10.22141/2224-0551.13.4.2018.137021
- Views 76
- Downloads 0
Modern Technologies of Vaccine Production
.
Antiviral Therapy for Acute Respiratory Infections in Children
It is shown that administration of inosine pranobex reduces the symptoms of acute respiratory viral infection, duration of the disease, prevents complications and restores compromised immunity. The drug is effective not...
Clinical and Anamnestic Features of Pathology of Gastrointestinal Tract in Children with Syndrome of Heart Connective Tissue Dysplasia, Born to Parents Irradiated In Childhood due to the Chernobyl Accident
The children born to parents irradiation-exposed in childhood due to the Chernobyl accident were found to have mainly the upper gastrointestinal pathology, namely chronic gastroduodenitis, usually concomitant, and severa...
Congenital Abnormalities of Kidneys Quantity: Frequency, Etiopathogenesis, Prenatal Diagnosis, Clinical Picture, Physical Development, Diagnosi, Treatment and Prevention (Part 1)
The literature data about frequency, etiopathogenesis, the main clinical symptoms, dynamic of physical development, modern methods of prenatal and postnatal diagnosis and treatment, as well as prevention of congenital di...
Endogenous Oxidants and Antioxidants in Human Body
The review presents general modern conception of endogenous oxidants and antioxidant system in human body, shows their participation in non-specific protection of the body against infectious agents.