Predicting tourism demand by A.R.I.M.A. models
Journal Title: Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja - Year 2017, Vol 30, Issue 1
Abstract
The paper provides a short-run estimation of international tourism demand focusing on the case of F.Y.R. Macedonia. For this purpose, the Box–Jenkins methodology is applied and several alternative specifications are tested in the modelling of original time series and international tourist arrivals recorded in the period 1956–2013. Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identifies the model of A.R.I.M.A.(1,1,1) as most suitable for forecasting. According to the research findings, a 13.9% increase in international tourist arrivals is expected by 2018. The forecasted values of the chosen model can assist in mitigating any potential negative impacts, as well as in the preparation of a tourism development plan for the country.
Authors and Affiliations
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP322381
- DOI -
- Views 51
- Downloads 0
Reimbursement and hospital competition in China
Quality and the costs of health care are of concern among patients. Differing from previous research into hospital competition, this article captures the impact of price subsidy of public hospitals on the quality of priv...
Public accounting history in post-communist Romania
Having a longitudinal approach of the Romanian public accounting system’s evolution, this historical study proposes the development of a framework in order to assess in a descriptive manner the change of public accountin...
The price prediction for the energy market based on a new method
Regarding the complex behaviour of price signalling, its prediction is difficult, where an accurate forecasting can play an important role in electricity markets. In this paper, a feature selection based on mutual inform...
Risk arbitrage in emerging Europe: are crossborder mergers and acquisition deals more risky?
Speculation spread in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), measured as the percentage difference between the offer price and the closing stock price of a target the day after the announcement, is the starting point for risk a...
A framework for increasing business value from social media
Organisations are investing heavily in various social media applications. Several case studies show that such undertakings may be promising at first glance, but often amount to little. More attention has to be paid to th...