Predicting tourism demand by A.R.I.M.A. models
Journal Title: Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja - Year 2017, Vol 30, Issue 1
Abstract
The paper provides a short-run estimation of international tourism demand focusing on the case of F.Y.R. Macedonia. For this purpose, the Box–Jenkins methodology is applied and several alternative specifications are tested in the modelling of original time series and international tourist arrivals recorded in the period 1956–2013. Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identifies the model of A.R.I.M.A.(1,1,1) as most suitable for forecasting. According to the research findings, a 13.9% increase in international tourist arrivals is expected by 2018. The forecasted values of the chosen model can assist in mitigating any potential negative impacts, as well as in the preparation of a tourism development plan for the country.
R&D expenditure and economic growth: EU28 evidence for the period 2002–2012
In this paper, we investigate the influence of R&D expenditure on economic growth in the EU28 during the period of 2002–2012. For this purpose, we constructed a multiple regression model, which showed that, ceteris parib...
Fashion effects: self-limitations of the free will caused by degeneration of the free market
The article discusses the existence of free will in the free market. The purpose of this article is to show how the free market restricts free will through the fashion effect and how an illusion of freedom is created. Th...
Regional absorption capacity of EU funds
Absorption of the financial resources allocated from the EU funds is a very important aspect of the European integration process, while there is a lack of empirical researches on the determinants of a country/region’s ab...
Economic development of the Western Balkans and European Union investments
Long-run economic growth represents a precondition for the development of the Western Balkans countries. Continuous investments are required to achieve high rates of economic growth, while investments sources are nationa...
Analysis of factors influencing managerial decision to use trade credit in construction sector
Trade credit is one of the most flexible short-term funding sources for companies and covers a significant part of the financial resources used by firms. Trade credit received makes available financial resources to achie...