Prediction of populational dynamics of phytophages in agroecosystems using Markov chains
Journal Title: Agrology - Year 2019, Vol 2, Issue 2
Abstract
It is shown that the effectiveness of protective technologies can be predicted using Markov chains, that is, on the basis of the application of probabilistic approaches in the phase transitions of the dynamics of the abundance of insect phytophages population (outbreak of number, depression, etc.) and assuming that changes in the state of the system occur at certain moments of time. The probability of transitions between states corresponds to the sum of the effectiveness of insecticides and the parameters of the system of predictors, which will allow to take into account the problem of incompleteness in accordance with the second theorem of Gödel (Gödel incompleteness theorem). One of these problems is the prediction of the dynamics of the number of insects, since it is impossible to construct a predictive model of the dynamics of the total number, based only on the number data, depending on the system level (population, agrocenosis, biocenosis, etc.); to solve this problem, it is necessary to involve the external predictors (modifying and regulating). In this context, it is important the right choice of predictors to obtain an adequate prediction of the behavior of the system at one level or another. Therefore, it is quite possible to use the basic provisions of the factorial dynamics of population theories (parasitic, biocenotic and climatic), the stochastic and the regulation theory of the dynamics of the population, the trophic and biogeocenotic theory of dynamics of populations. It is important to correctly estimate the level of the predictable system and to form the complex of additional predictors that are not its elements, in order to maximize the intensification of the predictive model. Based on the data on the abundance of the population and the effectiveness of the selected measure (chemical protection, biological agent, agrotechnical measure), it is possible to predict the probability of the population transition to a steady depressive state and the multiplicity of application of means for controlling the number of phytophages for its achievement
Authors and Affiliations
A. V. Fokin, N. N. Dolya, V. F. Drozda
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP602420
- DOI 10.32819/019014
- Views 110
- Downloads 0
The patterns of heavy metals accumulation in water, soil and their transfer in the soil–plant system in the catchment area of the Sotk and Masrik rivers
The problem of pollution of the catchment area of the Masrik river, located in the basin of lake Sevan, is associated with the gold mining plant in the basin of its Sotk tributary, where ore is mined and crushed. Industr...
Formation of soil fertility for different fertilizer systems in field crop rotation
The neсessity of systematic study of the indicatrors of fertility parameters is determined by the changes in the soil, because under the influence of intensification, they can be within the limits of the favorable interv...
Агрохімічний стан дерново-підзолистих ґрунтів Західного Полісся в умовах антропогенезу
Вивчено агрохімічний стан дерново-підзолистих ґрунтів Західного Полісся декількох агровиробничих груп: 27б – дерново-підзолисті глеєві осушені глинисто-піщані, 14б – дерново-підзолисті і підзолисто-дернові глейові глинис...
The influence of growth regulator and seeding rates on the formation of winter rape production in the conditions of the Western Forest-Steppe
The influence of pre-seed treatment of seeds and one- and two-time spraying of rapeseed winter hybrid Mercedes on growth regulator “Vermiodis” on its productivity in the conditions of the Forest Steppe of the West is cov...
Phytoremediation aspects of energy crops use in Ukraine
Today clearing of contaminated soils from heavy metals, pesticide residues is very important problem for Ukraine. Soil pollution is considered to be the result of the functioning of metallurgical and chemical industrial...