Prediction of post-fire mortality after surface fires in young pine stands
Journal Title: Лісівництво і агролісомеліорація - Year 2014, Vol 125, Issue
Abstract
Fire is one of the most dangerous ecological factors for forests causing catastrophic economic, environmental and social losses. Unfortunately, large-scale studies were not conducted on the diagnosis and prediction of post-fire tree mortality in Ukraine. For present investigations, sample plots were established using standard methods in forestry in the young pine stands which was damaged by surface fire in 2011 in the Vasyschevske forestry (Kharkiv region). The influence of different magnitudes of pine stands’ damage caused by surface fires on their further development was investigated. Correlations were found between the condition of trees, the damage levels and the foerst inventory indices. Intensity of trees mortality was determined, depending on the duration of the period after the fire and the damage levels. Mortality tables were also constructed. A series of equations were developed to predict the trees condition after three years post-fire period using regression analysis. The regression analysis included the following parameters: the diameter, the tree height, Kraft class, scorch height, relative bark char and crown discoloration. Filtering the worse predictors out from the model, we have built three logistic regressions.The best of them were models with the predictors: 1– discoloration; 2 – discoloration, diameter, relative char. Using ROC-analysis and adjusting cut-off thresholds for the models the prediction accuracy was achieved at the level of 90–91 % for trees that shall die.
Authors and Affiliations
S. Sydorenko
Keywords
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