PROBABILISTIC RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF GRAVITY ABUTMENTS ON ROCK AND NON-ROCK FOUNDATIONS BY THE CRITERIA OF STABILITY AGAINST DISPLACEMENT OF THE GRAVITY ABUTMENTS ON THE EXAMPLE OF HYDRO SCHEMES OF THE DNIEPER CASCADE
Journal Title: Збірник наукових праць Українського державного університету залізничного транспорту - Year 2018, Vol 181, Issue 15
Abstract
When calculating and designing modern hydraulic structures, it becomes necessary to assess their reliability and safety based on probabilistic methods. This work further develops the method for assessing reliability of gravity abutments by the criteria of stability loss against displacement. The work considers the random nature of the external loads and impacts, which the gravity abutments bear during operation, as well as correlations between them. It also considers the random nature of mechanical properties of the foundation soils and correlations between them. For solving this problem, the method of statistical tests (Monte Carlo method) was applied, which is widely used for assessing probabilistic reliability of complex technical systems. In applying the method of statistical tests to assess the reliability of a complex technical system, it is necessary to perform a significant number of statistical tests. This implies determination of internal parameters of the system during each statistical test. A numerical probabilistic assessment of the risk when the gravity abutments on rock and non-rock foundations at hydro schemes of the Dnieper Cascade reach the boundary conditions has been performed. Confidence limits of the probability of losing stability of the gravity abutments against displacement are determined; a number of statistical tests required to achieve confident accuracy is determined. Correctness of the obtained results is confirmed by their correspondence with the reliability assessment of the gravity abutments of the Dnieper cascade by deterministic analyses using the method of boundary conditions. In the future, the proposed method could be used in probabilistic reliability analyses of hydraulic structures and cascades of hydro schemes, taking into account the correlations between natural factors: wind, ice, and hydrological characteristics, as well as temperature loads and impacts.
Authors and Affiliations
Andrii Mozgovuy
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP535639
- DOI 10.18664/1994-7852.181.2018.156502
- Views 65
- Downloads 0
ANALYSIS OF THE CONDITION OF RAILS DURING OPERATION
The causes of the failure of rails, the defects that are emerge consequently and their location are considered in the article. The distribution of the decarburized layer along the perimeter and length of the rail is inve...
ANALYSIS OF THE METHODS QUALITY ASSESSMENT WORK INJECTOR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES
Railway industry is one of the largest consumers of diesel fuel in the country due to its use of diesel locomotives and diesel trains to perform transport and shunting operations. In the conditions of constant rise in fu...
FEATURES OF DIAGNOSTIC CHARACTER APPEARANCE REGARDING THE TECHNICAL CONDITIONS OF REDUCTION GEAR FOR PASSENGER CAR
The article to determine the technical condition of reduction gear passenger wagons the mathematical model of vibration that allows to detect the early stages of the birth defects. Using a mathematical model for the cont...
RESEARCHING OF THE CONFORMANCE RATING FOR LOCOMOTIVE REPAIR PRODUCTION
The determination of the conformance rating of locomotive repair production is associated with the formalization of expert statements obtained during its survey. In the article the structure of the compliance indicator o...
IMPROVING RESOURCE PERFORMANCE BY METRO RAIL WARNING GRINDING
In this work the influence of preventive grinding rails and lubrication treated surfaces on rails underground resource that is determined by the intensity of contact-fatigue defects origin side of the working surface rai...