Prognostics Methods of Security Phenomena
Journal Title: Vojenske rozhledy - Year 2018, Vol 27, Issue 1
Abstract
This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Del-phi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.
Authors and Affiliations
Josef Smolík
Keywords
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- EP ID EP286503
- DOI 10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.01.03-24
- Views 137
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