Rainfall Probability Analysis for Bapatla Region of Andhra Pradesh using Visual Basic
Journal Title: International Journal of Agricultural Science and Research (IJASR) - Year 2017, Vol 7, Issue 3
Abstract
Rainfall forecasting is the prominent aspect of hydrologic investigation. Rainfall distribution is a function of time. Therefore, it is important to investigate the rainfall data with regard to expected rainfall in relation to plotting position, which gives an anticipated depth of occurrence of rainfall at a given probability level during a specific period. Weekly and monthly rainfall analysis may be helpful in better crop design, specifying and establishing the time of sowing, cultural operations and irrigations of crops grown in a variety of seasons and regions. This problem is applicable in the estimates of rainfall, floods, droughts, storages etc. The design of any hydrologic structure depends upon estimated maximum rainfall for that period. Probability is a chance or likelihood based on the sampled data. The hydrologic phenomena are highly stochastic and queer in nature, and therefore are amenable to statistical interpretation and probability analysis. Realizing the importance of interpretation of rainfall by way of rainfall probability analysis, this present study “Rainfall Probability Analysis for Bapatla region of Andhra Pradesh using Visual Basic” is taken up to develop probability distribution and frequency curves of annual maximum weekly rainfall data using Log normal distribution and Gumbel distribution, simultaneously developing a Window based program for the suitable probability distribution function. The present study on “Rainfall Probability” for Bapatla region was done with weekly data of 10 years. The major objective of the analysis is to write such a program which could analyze the rainfall data of any area. In the present case the data for analysis was found to be suiting the Gumbel Distribution. The χ² value of Gumbel distribution is in the range, i.e. χ²tab > χ²cal. So it is suggested to use the Gumbel distribution.
Authors and Affiliations
T. Prabhakara Rao, Hari. N
Keywords
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