REVALUATION OF MEAN SEA LEVEL RISE REVEALED BY ALTIMETRY (1993-2015)
Journal Title: Larhyss Journal - Year 2017, Vol 31, Issue 31
Abstract
The time series analysis and especially forecasting at short and medium terms has undergone a significant development during recent years. This study aims to analysis and forecasting of changes in the global mean sea level. In this perspective, the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method has been applied to sea level anomaly time series, collected from the various space altimetry missions over the period from January 1993 to December 2015. The results show that the records of the global mean sea level have a clear increasing trend with a contribution in the initial series of 98.49%. This trend shows that the global mean sea level has risen with 88.6 mm, in seasonal adjusted data, over the period from 1993 to 2015. The application of linear regression indicates a rate of 3.36 ± 0.4 mm/year between 1993 and 2015. Two seasonal components characterizing changes in the global mean sea level were identified. These two components have periodicities of 12 months and 6 months, respectively. The total contribution of these two harmonics in the initial time series is of 1.1%. The noise signal, obtained after removal of identified trend and seasonality components, fluctuates between -4.81 and 5.59 mm, with a mean value of -0.03 mm. A strong correlation between the extremes values of noise and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is observed, such as during the strong events El Niño 1998 and El Niña 2011.
Authors and Affiliations
MAHDI HADDAD| Centre des Techniques Spatiales. 1 Avenue de la Palestine, BP 13 Arzew. Oran 31200. Algérie
Keywords
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