Review of markets and forecasting of the estimated value of works of art (Part I – world markets)
Journal Title: Вісник Національної академії керівних кадрів культури і мистецтв - Year 2017, Vol 1, Issue 4
Abstract
The purpose of the work. The constant attention of experts who are exploring art markets is being attracted by the questions of pricing of works of art, traded at these markets. There are various approaches to forecasting their estimated value by evaluators. The purpose of this work is to introduce a new look and to develop the role of the known formalized model, which can help evaluators and art investors in decision-making. Methodology. The basis of the proposed methodology is the exponential model of cost growth (EMR), which allows, based on the history of changing prices for a work of art, to simulate a forecast of its future estimated value. As a starting point in modeling, sales figures of paintings were used in different sections: the most expensive world sales over the past 80 years, randomly selected paintings by old masters, TOP paintings sales in the Russian and Ukrainian art markets. The scientific novelty of the work is that when determining the estimated value of the paintings, the concept of "the rate of value growth" was introduced, which allowed in the process of analysis to abstract from the real price of the work, and therefore to study the dynamics of price changes, not pressed upon by the famous "million" price of many of them. A mathematical model that describes this option significantly accelerated the necessary calculations, and eventually gave the opportunity to facilitate a common interpretation of the results. Conclusions. The calculations made it possible to determine the most attractive rate of profitability growth for investors and on this basis to build multipliers, useful for evaluating works of art.
Authors and Affiliations
Borys Platonov, Viktoriya Mazur
Keywords
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