SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİNDE ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ: YAPISAL KIRILMALI EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME TEKNİĞİNDEN KANITLAR
Journal Title: Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi - Year 2018, Vol 5, Issue 2
Abstract
Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, seçilmiş OECD ülkelerinde enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi araştırmak ve bu ilişkinin yönünü belirlemektir. Çalışmada, değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi ortaya koymak için yapısal kırılmalı Gregory-Hansen eşbütünleşme yöntemi, ilişkinin yönünü belirlemek için ise Hata Düzeltme Modeli (ECM) ve VAR-Granger nedensellik testleri kullanılmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi açıklamaya yönelik olarak literatürde geliştirilen, büyüme hipotezi, enerji tasarrufu hipotezi, geri bildirim hipotezi ve etkisizlik hipotezi lehinde kanıtlar sunmaktadır. EXTENDED SUMMARY Background: Economic growth-energy consumption nexus which starts with the invention of the steam engine has taken attention of economists from past to present. Several theories and methods are developed to examine this relationship. These theories examine growth-energy nexus basically within the scope of four hypotheses. First one of these hypotheses is growth hypothesis. According to growth hypothesis, there is unidirectional causality arises from energy consumption to economic growth. Increases or decreases in energy consumption effect economic growth. However, reverse is not valid. Second hypothesis is energy conservation hypothesis. This hypothesis argues that there is unidirectional causality arises from economic growth to energy consumption. Changes in economic growth effect energy consumption but changes in energy consumption have no or little effect on economic growth. This policy implies that efficient use of energy sources rather than reducing energy consumption. Third hypothesis which explains the energy-growth relationship is feedback hypothesis. This hypothesis indicates that there is bilateral relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. Changes in economic growth cause changes in energy consumption just as energy consumption effects economic growth. The last and fourth hypothesis is neutrality hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, there is no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Increases and decreases in energy consumption and economic growth have no effect on each other. Policy makers should consider effects of these hypotheses while creating new policies. Purpose: Empirical findings of the articles which take place in energy-growth nexus literature can be completely contrast even with the same sample period and country if they implement different econometric techniques. Same researchers can obtain different results. The main purpose of the study is to examine the direction and the long run relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in selected OECD countries in order to make contribution to growth-energy nexus literature and to suggest some policy implications for sample countries. The most important difference of this study from others, it examines the energy consumption-economic growth nexus with relatively longer sample period. Methodology: This article investigates the economic growth-energy consumption nexus for 14 OECD countries in the sample period of 1965-2016. All of the variables are in natural logarithm form in order to interpret coefficients as elasticities and to decreases scale of sample. Data sources are BP Statistics for energy consumption, Total Economy Database for population, and World Development Indicators for GDP. Since the sample period is relatively longer which increases existance of possible structural break, Gregory-Hansen co-integration test with structural break was applied after determining instability in co-integration coefficients by Hansen Instability test. Error Correction Model and VAR Granger causality test are held in order to determine the direction of the causality. Findings: Empirical findings reveal that all of the hypotheses can be observed in selected OECD country sample. Growth hypothesis is valid for Belgium, Canada, and France; Energy conservation hypothesis is valid for Sweden, Switzerland, and Norway; Feedback hypothesis is valid for Australia, Austria, and Germany; Neutraliy hypothesis is valid for Italy. Changes in preferences, technological schoks, structural changes, economic crises, migrations, wars, and changes in demographic pattern should take into consideration while creating new policies in countries where causal relationships were revealed. Further researches would examine energy consumption-economic growth nexus within the scope of four discussed hypotheses and environmental factors, hence they should concentrate on sustainability discussions.
Authors and Affiliations
Güray Enes KARAAĞAÇ, Reşat CEYLAN
Keywords
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- EP ID EP441688
- DOI 10.30798/makuiibf.407977
- Views 155
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