Selection of Suitable General Circulation Model and Future Climate Assessment of Kashmir Valley
Journal Title: International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology (IJRASET) - Year 2017, Vol 5, Issue 7
Abstract
Many impact studies require climate change information at a finer resolution than that provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs). Climate change scenarios developed from Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the initial source of information for estimating plausible future climate. However, the spatial resolution of GCMs is too coarse to resolve regional scale effect and to be used directly in local impact studies. Therefore, downscaling is required to develop climate scenarios of higher spatial resolutions. Also the simulated data for different GCMs is freely available at IPCC data distribution Centre, but to extract the data for a particular region and convert it to a user readable format, different software packages are required. This study presents a decision support tool to select a suitable GCM for any specific region, based on statistical parameters such as coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). Linear Regression method is incorporated as a downscaling technique to project future climate scenarios. To demonstrate the application of the method, future air surface temperature and precipitation scenarios are projected for 21st century, using data for six meteorological stations for Kashmir Valley, India.
Authors and Affiliations
Mehnaza Akhter
Keywords
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