Simulating Service System and Estimating the Hospital Beds for ICU Patients of Behbahan Shahidzade Hospital in 2015
Journal Title: International Journal of Advanced Biotechnology and Research. - Year 2016, Vol 7, Issue 2
Abstract
ABSTRACT Introduction: Hospital bed is one of the most important resources of a hospital. The optimal estimation of the future number of beds needed is one of the important and interesting subjects for the policy makers. The aim of the present study was to simulate the service system and estimate the hospital beds for the ICU patients. Method: This is a simulation and modeling study. Stochastic simulation method was used to model the services system of ICU. The initial research population was consisted of 560 patients hospitalized in the ICU of Shahidzadeh general hospital in Behbahan, Khuzestan. The beds needed in the future was estimated based on key and significant parameters and variables including length of stay, admissions rate, and discharges rate for 10000 days and 5000 patients simulated (admission rate, =2) Data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0 and EXCEL 2010 software’s. Findings: the results showed that mean and median of the patients' length of stay were 5.4 9.3 and 3 days, respectively. Among the different variables, the patients' age, having diabetes, having dyslipidemia , the number of diagnostic tests, and the number of radiography services were the most important predictors of the patients' length of stay .The findings of simulation model showed that if the bed estimation is performed based on 10 and 20 initial beds , ICU will approximately encounter the shortage of bed up to the future 13 years (5000 days) . If only the ICU works with 40 initial beds, it will need some additional hospital beds for 42.7 % of days (2135 days). Therefore, the ICU in the study can provide service for 57.3% of days (2865 days) with the same existing 40 beds. Conclusion: we concluded that according to the existing beds and resources, the studied hospital will strongly face a shortage of ICU beds in most of the future days.
Authors and Affiliations
1Gholamreza Shahbazi Moghadam, 2Amin Torabipour and Abbas Yazdanpanah3
Keywords
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