STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FERTILITY, THEIR CONNECTION AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS OF DYNAMICS

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STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FERTILITY, THEIR CONNECTION AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS OF DYNAMICS

Journal Title: Демографія та соціальна економіка - Year 2019, Vol 1, Issue

Abstract

The paper is aimed at studying fertility structure indicators and links between them as well as defining the impact of demographic factors on the fertility structure in Ukraine and other European countries. The key trends in the recent changes of fertility structure are described. It is established that the most serious impact on the dynamics of number of births in Ukraine in the current century were due to: births to mothers aged 25 to 35; second and third births; births in marriage. A decrease of the level of right-side skewness is identified, and it is established that the distribution of the age function of birth rates has become less concentrated in Ukraine, which is typical for “motherhood ageing” during the Second Demographic Transition.In the long-term retrospective, the slowdown of family formation and childbearing in Ukraine and other post-Soviet European countries developed much later than in Western European countries. The family policies and certain extraordinary events in Ukraine influenced changes in ratios between the overall fertility rate and such indicators as the mean birth order and the mean age at birth.Using various methodological approaches to the analysis of convergence/divergence for the statistical data for the period since the 2nd half of the 20th century for thirty three European countries, it is determined that the mean age at birth in the European region for this period demonstrates a tendency to converge (the average speed of convergence is 2.5 %). However, the average weighted difference in the mean age of the mother at birth in Ukraine and other studied countries still remains significant; the “motherhood ageing” in Ukraine will be progressing in the future.It is confirmed that nowadays one of the major demographic factors of “ageing motherhood” is the increase of life expectancy. Based on the information for European countries for 1960–2015 period, an attempt to estimate the relations between the life expectancy for women and the mean age at birth (with the certain time lag) is made. The analysis showed that the link is statistically significant for the period between 1997 and 2015.

Authors and Affiliations

І. О. КУРИЛО

Keywords

fertility fertility structure mean birth order mean age at birth demographic determinants of fertility and of its structure life expectancy convergence and divergence of structural fertility parameters

EP ID EP558251
DOI 10.15407/dse2019.01.011
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