Study of the correlation of temperature effects according to statistical data at hydropower schemes of the Dnieper cascade
Journal Title: Вісник Одеської державної академії будівництва та архітектури - Year 2018, Vol 1, Issue 72
Abstract
When calculating and designing modern hydraulic structures, there is a need to assess their reliability and safety based on probabilistic methods. One of the factors affecting the reliability of hydraulic structures at all stages of their construction and operation is a temperature regime of the environment. To perform probabilistic calculations of the reliability of hydraulic structures for temperature effects, it is necessary to have statistical data of the temperature effects of various probabilities, parameters of the distribution functions of the annual lowest monthly average temperature and the annual maximum amplitude of the average monthly ambient temperatures, as well as to take into account the correlation between these temperature effects. The previously unsolved part of the problem is that the probabilistic assessment of the reliability and safety of hydraulic structures and cascades of hydropower schemes using the distribution functions of the annual lowest monthly average temperature and the annual maximum amplitude of the average monthly ambient temperatures does not take into account the possible correlation between these temperature factors. This paper presents results of the statistical processing of the annual lowest monthly average temperature and the annual maximum amplitude of the average monthly temperatures at sites of the Dnieper cascade of hydropower schemes based on observational data from 1966 to 2008. The statistical series of the annual lowest average monthly temperature and the annual maximum amplitude of average monthly temperatures on the Dnieper River were analyzed and processed; the correlation between the annual lowest average monthly temperature and the annual maximum amplitude of the average monthly ambient temperatures at sites of hydropower schemes of the Dnieper cascade were studied; the statistical characteristics of the linear regression equations and the correlation coefficients for the pairs of hydropower schemes were calculated. The obtained data indicate a close correlation (for example, the correlation coefficient of the sample of the annual lowest monthly average ambient temperature of the Kyiv – Kakhovka hydropower schemes is 0.791) and, sometimes, a practically functional relationship (for example, the correlation coefficient of the sample of the annual maximum amplitude of the average monthly ambient temperatures of the Dniprodzerzhinsk – Dnieper hydropower schemes is 0.964) between the annual lowest monthly average temperatures and the annual maximum amplitudes of the average monthly ambient temperatures at sites of hydropower schemes of the Dnieper cascade. The results may be used in forecasting the temperature phenomena at the Dnieper River, as well as in determining the probability of an emergency at the cascade of hydropower schemes.
Authors and Affiliations
A. O. , Mozgovuy
Keywords
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