Survey of accidents in suburban Tehran and the prediction of future events based on a time-series model

Journal Title: Electronic Physician - Year 2014, Vol 6, Issue 1

Abstract

Introduction: Car accidents are currently a social issue globally because they result in the deaths of many people. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in suburban Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The sample population of this cross-sectional study was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in suburban Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered by the Tehran Emergency Section. In the present study, Minitab 15 software was used to provide a description of traffic accidents in suburban Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of traffic accidents in suburban Tehran per day in 2010 was 7.91 with a standard deviation of 7.70. This figure for 2011 was 6 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 5.30. A one-way analysis of variance indicated that the average of traffic accidents in suburban Tehran was different for different months of the year (P = 0.000). The study results showed that different seasons in 2010 and 2011 had significantly different numbers of traffic accidents (P < 0.05). Through an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA), it was predicted that there would be 166 traffic accidents in April 2012 with a mean of 5.53 and maximum of 6 traffic accidents/day. Conclusion: There has been a decreasing trend in the average number of traffic accidents per day.

Authors and Affiliations

Ghulam Heidar Teymuri, Rahman Bahmani, Mehdi Asghari, Elham Madrese, Abdolrasoul Rahmani, Marzieh Abbasini, Iman Ahmadnezhad

Keywords

Related Articles

Comparison of urinary sodium and potassium in children older than two with idiopathic hypercalciuria and a healthy control group in Bandar-Abbas, Iran, in 2013

Background: Idiopathic hypercalciuria is an important cause of symptoms related to the urinary system. The urinary excretion of high sodium and low potassium is a risk factor for hypercalciuria and urolithiasis. The aim...

Contributing factors of obesity among stressed adolescents

Introduction: Many adolescents suffer from common mental disorders such as stress, which affects health through the psychosocial process, eating behavior, food choices and physical activity. During adolescence, dietary p...

Adherence to treatment in patients with open-angle glaucoma and its related factors

INTRODUCTION: Lack of adherence to medical treatments typically lead to burdensome consequences such as progressive visual impairment, blindness, and disabilities. This study aimed to determine the adherence to medicatio...

Gender differences in substance use patterns and disorders among an Iranian patient sample receiving methadone maintenance treatment

BACKGROUND: The current prevalence rate of substance abuse and dependence, represents an increasing trend of substance abuse and dependence among women, and the results of epidemiology studies indicate that substance use...

Components that affect the Implementation of Health Services’ Strategic Purchasing: A Comprehensive Review of the Literature

INTRODUCTION: Strategic purchasing is one of the mechanisms that can increase access, equity, and efficiency as well as the correct management of health resources. The aim of this study was to extract important and influ...

Download PDF file
  • EP ID EP147353
  • DOI -
  • Views 115
  • Downloads 0

How To Cite

Ghulam Heidar Teymuri, Rahman Bahmani, Mehdi Asghari, Elham Madrese, Abdolrasoul Rahmani, Marzieh Abbasini, Iman Ahmadnezhad (2014). Survey of accidents in suburban Tehran and the prediction of future events based on a time-series model. Electronic Physician, 6(1), 754-758. https://europub.co.uk/articles/-A-147353