THE APPLICATION OF THE CANONICAL CORRELATION METHOD FOR THE EVALUATION OF FOREIGN TRADE OF UKRAINIAN REGIONS
Journal Title: Держава та регіони. Серія: Економіка та підприємництво - Year 2018, Vol 5, Issue 104
Abstract
In this article, the impact of demographic and socio-economic indicators of Ukrainian regions on the indicators of their foreign trade was estimated. The method of canonical correlations for the analysis of foreign trade of Ukrainian regions has been applied. The population, the migration, the unemployment rate, and the gross regional product are chosen as the key factors of influence on the amount of export-import operations of the regions of Ukraine. To conduct the canonical correlation analysis, the plurality of dependent variables is chosen Y (Y1 – export turnover of Ukrainian regions; Y2 – import turnover of Ukrainian regions) from the plurality of variables X (X1 – the number of inhabitants of Ukrainian regions; X2 – migration movement of the population; X3 – unemployment rate of the population; X4 – the gross regional product per capita). As a result of the canonical correlation analysis, we got two canonical roots with the canonical meaning of correlation coefficient that describe 100% of the dispersion of indicators plurality of foreign trade and 74.47% – the plurality of demographic and socio-economic indicators. On an average, there can be explained 70.72% of variables dispersion in the left plurality and 50.24% of variableness in the right plurality by using indicator values of foreign trade and received canonical roots. Considering the importance of correlation coefficient and fulfilment of conditions, the importance of both canonical roots was established (as far as the p-level<<0,001). Canonical coefficients for the description of correlation dependence between the foreign trade indicators and factors that are under investigation are counted. The scattering graph of canonical variables is constructed following on from the analysis results. It is substantiated that using the method of canonical correlation can reduce the number of factors that influence foreign trade by separating the main and secondary factors.
Authors and Affiliations
N. V. Dziubanovska
Keywords
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