Abstract

The subject of the article is prognosis and management of information incidents. The purpose of the article – use the experience of mathematical modeling of biological epidemics, to predict the results of large-scale information and cyber-attacks. Numerical simulation methods are used. Existing approaches to modeling epidemics in biological and the computer world are analyzed. Analogies and differences of epidemics in the biological and computer worlds were established. The obvious form of mathematical models for prediction of information and cyber-attacks dynamics was proposed. The latent period features of infections were analyzed. Opportunities of not destructive existing of alien objects in biological and computer systems were discussed. Simulation features are discussed. The conditions of deterministic chaos occurrence in the simulation are analyzed. Dependencies of epi-demic peaks from specific ratios ware determined. Using of ratios for guidance of information and cyber incidents epidemic process was proposed.

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