The Genesis of the Methodological Principles of Budget Forecasting
Journal Title: Бізнес Інформ - Year 2014, Vol 7, Issue 0
Abstract
The aim of the article is the disclosure of the genesis of modern methods of budgetary forecasting and the study of the most promising methodological approach to develop long-term budget predictions. During the analysis and systematization of modern methods of forecasting performance of the revenue and expenditure side of the budget the shortcomings and advantages of the major methods of budgetary forecasting were revealed. The necessity of revision and adaptation of modern methods of budgetary forecasting was outlined, which have been tested in the advanced economies, according to the conditions of countries with developing markets. The study proved that in the face of uncertainty, social tensions, political conditions and other institutional factors that have a significant influence on the formation of macroeconomic trends to increase significantly the role of formalized forecasting methods which are based on experience and intuition of qualified experts. The necessity to complement the classical (formalized) methods of forecasting with expert estimates in order to increase their effectiveness and ease the application in individual cases. The prospect for further research in this area is to bring the need for a genetic approach in the selection of prediction methods, which provides simulation of the transformation taking place in the economy, and reduced to the transference dependency characteristic of the past and the current state of the object of the study, in the future on the basis of established cause-and-effect relations.
Authors and Affiliations
Tetiana Koliada
Keywords
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