The Impact of Climate Change on Severity, Duration and Magnitude of Drought using SPI and RDI in Semnan Region
Journal Title: Journal of Drought and Climate change Research (JDCR) - Year 2023, Vol 1, Issue 1
Abstract
Drought monitoring is an essential component of drought risk management. This paper presents characteristics of droughts simulated by 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gases emission (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) at three levels of risk (0.25, 0.50, and 0.75) in the Semnan region. For this purpose, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI) were calculated for three future periods 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 at different time scales. The calculated RDI and SPI for different climate change scenarios were compared with those of the past period (1965-2009). The results revealed that as compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, in the RCP8.5 scenario, there will be more dry and wet periods. Drought duration predicted by RDI index compared to SPI index (at 1-year and 3-mon time scales), under both emission scenarios in the future period (2010-2099) has decreased compared to the past period (1965-2009), but the number of droughts has increased. Additionally, increases and decreases in the drought magnitude and severity were found at time scales 3-month and annually, respectively. These results provide observational evidence for the increasing risk of droughts as anthropogenic global warming progresses.
Authors and Affiliations
Mahdi Delghandi; Sanaz Joorablou; Zahra Ganji Nowroozi
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP754875
- DOI https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2023.5909.1004
- Views 28
- Downloads 0
The Effect of Climate Change on the Way of Investing in Modern Irrigation Systems
In recent years, crises caused by natural events in the world have increased dramatically. The various effects of climate change on different sectors of production, environment and human societies have caused it to be me...
Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves at basin scale using the ERA5 reanalysis product
IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves play a crucial role in hydrological modeling, infrastructure design, and flood risk management. Traditional methods, relying on ground-based observations, face challenges such as...
Analysis of Iran's Drought Changes with Palmer's Self-Adjustment Index
Drought is one of the phenomena of environmental hazards that occurs in most parts of the world but its manifestation is more in arid and semi-arid regions and also occurs over a long period of time and alternately affec...
Prioritization of Factors Affecting Drought using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Method (Study Case: Torbat Heydarieh City)
Iran is one of the driest countries in the world and is exposed to severe droughts. Drought is the result of the mutual effects of natural and social surroundings. In addition to affecting agricultural production, it als...
Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Groundwater Level, Flow Direction and Unit Hydrograph of the Kahorestan Plain Aquifer Abstrac
In the ecosystem of dry and semi-dry areas such as Iran, groundwater is considered as the main source of water supply. Currently, excessive exploitation has put these vital resources at risk of destruction. Therefore, in...