The Impact of Rapid Urbanization on Poverty Levels in the Context of Climate Change: Empirical Evidence from Somalia
Journal Title: Challenges in Sustainability - Year 2024, Vol 12, Issue 4
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between rapid urbanization and poverty levels in Somalia, employing annual data spanning from 1990 to 2022. The analysis focused on critical variables, including urbanization rates, CO2 emissions as a measure of climate change, and unemployment rates, with poverty quantified by real GDP per capita. A Johansen cointegration approach is utilized to ascertain long-term equilibrium relationships, while a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) captures short-term dynamics. Results indicate that urbanization exerts a significant positive influence on poverty in the long term; specifically, a 1% increase in urbanization correlates with a 1.73% rise in poverty levels. Additionally, unemployment demonstrates a substantial and statistically significant positive effect, whereby a 1% increase in unemployment results in a 9.64% increase in poverty. In contrast, CO2 emissions were found to be statistically insignificant. The long-run equilibrium adjustment rate is approximately 12.66% per period, suggesting a moderate pace of return to equilibrium. In the short run, the unemployment rate negatively influences poverty, with a coefficient of -2.369508. Furthermore, CO2 emissions exhibit a delayed yet significant positive effect on poverty, indicated by a coefficient of 0.681835. Granger causality tests reveal strong causal relationships between past unemployment rates and future poverty levels, as well as between past urbanization trends and subsequent poverty levels. The findings underscore the necessity for integrated policies that address urbanization, enhance climate resilience, and promote employment, aiming to alleviate poverty in Somalia.
Authors and Affiliations
Ali Mohamud Hussein, Bashir Mohamed Osman
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP754048
- DOI -
- Views 5
- Downloads 0
Impacts of Anthropogenic Activities on Morocco’s Ecological Footprint: A Long-Run STIRPAT Analysis Using VAR/VECM Modeling
This study assesses the long-term impacts of anthropogenic activities on Morocco's Ecological Footprint (EF), employing a dataset from 1980 to 2022 within the framework of the STIRPAT model and utilizing a model (VAR/VEC...
Agriculture's Role in Environmental Sustainability: A Comprehensive Review of Challenges and Solutions
The growing global population has placed increasing pressure on the agriculture sector to meet rising food demand, posing significant environmental and ecological challenges. This review systematically examines 70 studie...
Sustainability Evaluation of Regency Development in Peatland Areas of Riau Province, Indonesia
The sustainable development of peatland ecosystems is imperative due to their susceptibility to climate change. This study evaluates the sustainability of regency development in the peatland areas of Riau Province, Indon...
A Decision-Making Model for Prioritizing Low-Carbon Policies in Climate Change Mitigation
Climate change (CC) represents a paramount environmental challenge, necessitating the deployment of sustainable, low-carbon strategies particularly in developing regions such as Africa. This study introduces a novel deci...
Challenges in Attaining Sustainable Development Goals Between Income Groups: A Systematic Comparative Analysis
Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) presents distinct challenges across different income economies, necessitating a comprehensive analysis to identify critical factors influencing progress. This study syste...