The Modelling of Registered Unemployment Rate Nonlinear Dynamics in Ukraine by Means of Threshold Autoregression
Journal Title: Проблеми економіки - Year 2015, Vol 2015, Issue 3
Abstract
In conditions of unstable economic development of the national economy the analysis of labour market and forecast of employment and unemployment rate dynamics is of primary importance for social responsibility provision and social risks reduction in society. The purpose of the research is the empirical analysis of nonlinear dynamics of registered unemployment rate in Ukraine in conditions of increased risks and asymmetry of information and the development of corresponding complex of nonlinear threshold autoregressive models. Methodology approach is based on methods of economic theory and economic and mathematical tools. Econometric methods of analysis of nonlinear time series with non-traditional functions of distribution have been used. In the result of the empirical investigation the application of threshold autoregressive models has been justified and the row of nonlinear econometric specifications that help to explain asymmetric dynamics of unemployment has been evaluated. The resulting threshold function and value of threshold parameter, estimated on the basis of real information, determine the branching of TAR model into two different modes of behaviour that in different ways characterise dynamics of unemployment growth and fall and allow forecasting the phases of employment fall and growth in the short term. Application of the developed nonlinear econometric models of registered unemployment rate dynamics adds to characteristics of labour sector in Ukraine and allows forecasting more precisely the effects of government measures in the sphere. The defined nonlinear character of dynamics of unemployment rate certifies non-Walrasian features of labour market in Ukraine and reveals its uneven and asymmetric cyclic behaviour.
Authors and Affiliations
Iryna Lukianenko, Marianna Oliskevych
Keywords
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