The Predictive Capacity of the Holt-Winters Model Using Different Initialization Methods. An aplicación to the Agricultural Sector
Journal Title: International Journal of Modern Research In Engineering & Management. - Year 2019, Vol 2, Issue 6
Abstract
This work introduces the application of the Holt-Winters (HW) Model to forecast the consumption of electrical energy using three different initialization methods. The model is used with historical data associated to electricity consumption of a produce farm located in the state of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Three smoothing constants are employed, which are: α to consider the variable level; β for its tendency; and γ, for seasonality. The idea is to propose an evaluation method that minimizes the prediction error of forecasting technique. To get it, the first step consists in verify that HW model is feasible, that means that the variable presents tendency and seasonality. Then the results are estimated using three initialization methods, and a comparison of them is realized. The findings show that the best option has been the second one, since it has a lower error value when the method considers the initial smoothing constants and their optimal values. The obtained results prove that the application of this type of forecasting methods can contribute to improve the decisions making in order to save in consuming electrical energy for irrigation and agricultural activities as well as increasing economic benefits.
Authors and Affiliations
Juan Manuel Izar-Landeta
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP647669
- DOI -
- Views 136
- Downloads 0
Failure Study of Reinforced Concrete Buildings of Kathmandu Valley In Gorkha Earthquake 2015
Nepal lies in earthquake prone zone. There are different fault zones in Nepal. Active fault of in this region causes several earthquakes in Nepal. In the recent, an earthquake of M7.8 occurred in 77 km NW of Kathmandu (i...
MIM (Mobile Instant Messaging) Classification using Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) and Bayesian Algorithm
The focus of the study is based on binary sentiment classification on aspect level to develop a hybrid sentiment classification framework of WhatsApp MIMs (Mobile Instant Messages). It has been carried out into two phase...
Efficiency Evaluation of The Agricultural Sector in Senegal Based on Suitable Combinations of Inputs, CCR, And BBC in DEA
With regards to the global competitive environment that becomes more and more intense due to local and foreign competitions resulting from international trade and foreign direct investments, the emphasis has been put on...
Design and Evaluation of Hot Mix Asphalt Using Brick Dust as Mineral Filler Replacement
Hot Mix Asphalt is the integral part of flexible pavement which is the mixture of suitable proportion of coarse aggregate, fine aggregate, fillers and the binder. Fillers are of the size of less than 0.075 mm. Fillers ar...
Modelling and Simulation of Shell and Tube Heat Exchanger Using different Types of Fluids
The shell and tube type of heat exchanger module is to be used for simulation study of various fluid systems on rate of heat transfer. The ionic fluids are used to see the difference in outlet temperature of fluid as com...