The prognostication of mudflows in the Ukrainian Carpathians
Journal Title: Геодинаміка - Year 2014, Vol 16, Issue 1
Abstract
Purpose. The aim of the research is to elucidate the regularity of the mudflow growth processes, depending on the factors that cause them and to the regional time-spatial prognostication of mudflow hazard using GIS. Methods. Using GIS technologies relevant and representative complex of significant factors due to the character of influence has been selected and suggested for usage in the regional prognostication of mudflows hazard. Geological, geomorphological, technological, climatic, landscape factors have been selected as spatial mudflow factors. Spatial analysis is based on detection of the regular connection of spatial factor characteristics with spatial distribution of mudflow centers. The time long-lasting prognostication of the mudflows activity is based on the hypothesis of the regular reiteration of natural processes. Heliophysical, seismic, meteorological, hydrogeological factors have been selected as time mudflow factors. The function of a complex index of long standing mudflow activity has been calculated. The presence of rhythm in range of mudflow activity and group of factors can be confirmed. Based on the factors distribution the function of a standard complex spatial index of the probability of the mudflow centers distribution and the function of a complex index of long standing mudflow activity have been calculated. Results. The final result of the research is to create prognostic geoinformatic model of mudflow hazard, which is based on the detected patterns of time- spatial distribution of mudflows taking in to account the total complex of influential factors. Scientific novelty. The example of solving the burning scientific issue - regional time-spatial prognostication activation of mudflow processes with representation of theoretical justification, prognostication algorithm and the results of testing in a particular area has been considered. The practical significance. The developed model of longstanding activity of mudflows for the Carpathians allows to evaluate changes in longstanding activity of mudflows based on impact factors has the practical value for the purposes of long term planning of regional development, and should be taken into account while constructing mudflow protective complexes. The revealed dependence of mud processes and influential factors can be used to build GIS models of mudflow hazard for geological and geomorphological similar areas, in the case of taking changes of the trend to harmonics of time factors is possible to construct such models for perspective.
Authors and Affiliations
E. Kuzmenko, T. B. Chepurna
Keywords
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