The safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: Forecasting of risks
Journal Title: Вестник МГТУ - Year 2018, Vol 21, Issue 4
Abstract
The development of the Arctic region is now especially relevant. The Arctic shelf is attractive due to hydrocarbon fields, and the Northern Sea Route remains the most important transport route linking Asia and Europe. However, the severe arctic climate does not contribute to the intensive development of the territory, and even carries a certain danger. This problem is especially acute in the eastern sector of the Arctic and even in the Far East as regions with underdeveloped infrastructure. Accidents associated with ice conditions are typical for the northern latitudes, the most dangerous ones are icing of ships. Owing to the strong remoteness of the ports from each other, the response time in an emergency situation is difficult to bring to the normative index. Creating a dense network of rescue teams will require unjustifiably large financial investments. Therefore, a risk assessment is proposed as a basic measure to improve the existing emergency response system. The necessity of improving methods for risk assessment taking into account spatial and temporal changes has been substantiated. An analysis of factors that largely determine the level of risk has been carried out. Some examples of risk-generating factors have been given. The synergistic and neutralizing effects of risk-forming factors have been considered. The linking of risks to a certain locality has been justified. According to media reports the accident of the Vostok trawler occurred in January 2018 in the Japan Sea has been analyzed. Criteria and boundary conditions of modeling have been singled out. Maps of the probability of icing have been constructed for the accident time. The risk assessment for the accident has been carried out using computer weather models. The risk distribution maps have been constructed. Conclusions have been drawn about the applicability of the approach and the need for its further improvement.
Authors and Affiliations
S. Yu. Moninets, A. I. Bazhenova
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP435348
- DOI 10.21443/1560-9278-2018-21-4-558-565
- Views 115
- Downloads 0
Mannitol content in different parts of Fucus vesiculosus thallus from the Barents Sea in different seasons
The data on the mannitol content in different parts of the brown algae F. vesiculosus thallus from the Barents Sea have been obtained for the first time in different seasons. Seaweed for research was collected in the Bel...
Effect of extraction technology on antioxidant activity of black chokeberry Aronia melanocarpa, cranberries Vaccinium vitis-idaéa, blueberries Vaccinium myrtillus, raspberries Rubus idaeus, cherries Prunus subg. cérasus, black currant Ribes nigrum
Foods rich in antioxidants and antioxidant activity reduce the risk of many diseases. To solve the urgent task of creating an optimal technology for extracting a complex of substances with antioxidant action from fruits...
Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis domesticates a new habitat
The fact of habitation of an invading species – the Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis – in the Lakhtinskaya Bay of Lake Onega has been registered. It should be mentioned that the first specimens were caught near the...
Estimation of aeration time in blind excavations: Methodological approach based on 3D numerical modeling
The paper presents the results on 3D numerical modeling of ventilation in blind excavations of different length under the fixed transverse section due to turbulent diffusion. Aerodynamic characteristics have been calcula...
Chocolate as a product for functional nutrition
The problem of producting food products with functional properties has become increasingly urgent in the recent years. This is explained by the deterioration of the overall ecological situation, the decline in the qualit...