The Use of Time Series and Artificial Neural Networks in Drought Simulation (Case Study: Bojnourd City)
Journal Title: Journal of Drought and Climate change Research (JDCR) - Year 2024, Vol 2, Issue 6
Abstract
Drought is a climatic phenomenon and is actually considered a part of the climate of a region. Drought has a hidden nature and the duration of its occurrence is long, and its effects appear in a non-structural way and as a result, the damages caused by it in various sectors such as agriculture, social, economic, environmental, etc. gradually appear. In this research, artificial neural network was used as a powerful tool in simulating the drought of Bojnourd city. For this purpose, the statistical data of precipitation, relative humidity, and temperature from 1997 to 2014 are the basis of the upcoming research. SPI drought index was used as sample output. 70% of the data were considered as training data and 30% as testing data. The networks used are of backpropagation type and radial basis function with error backpropagation algorithm and Lunberg-Marquardt learning method. Box Jenkins method from MINITAB software and BPI to BP24 models from MATLAB software were used in the branch for drought simulation. The value of the correlation coefficient for the training phase (R) was 0.95 and for the test phase it was 0.81, which has the lowest error in the test phase.the results of the training phase were close to each other in most of the models. Among the selected models of the post-release network, the BP19 model was selected as the selected example. RMSE determination coefficient was estimated with a value of 0.16 for the training stage and MAE (mean absolute error) was estimated as 0.0071.
Authors and Affiliations
Mohtaram Mohamadyariyan; Ebrahim Amiri
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP754916
- DOI https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2024.8014.1074
- Views 27
- Downloads 0
Measuring Discharge in a Shallow River in an Arid Area solely using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have recently been applied for river flow measurement. In this paper UAV images were first used to acquire surface velocity fields of a small river in an arid area in Iran based on the pri...
Evaluating the Trend of Rainfall Changes in the LongTerm Time Series of Shiraz
Since in the previous evaluations, the statistical trend of Iran's rainfall has fluctuated for 40 to 50 years, the purpose of this article is to make a long-term time series of Shiraz and then evaluate the rainfall trend...
Investigating the Trend of Changes in the Economic Value of Water Consumed by Agricultural Crops in Khorasan Razavi Province
The continuation of droughts and the reduction of water resources have made the water input as the most important input affecting the composition and amount of cultivated area of agricultural products in the cultivation...
Flood Prioritization of Sarbaz River Sub-Basins Using SWAT Model
Flood is one of the most important threats to human society, which has increased in recent decades with the increase in population and climate change. Therefore, studying the features of the basins that are related to th...
Zoning of Drinking Water Quality Using Entropy Method and Its Relationship with the Drought (Case Study: Abdalan Aquifer, Gachsaran)
The reduction of water quality in groundwater resources over the last half century has attracted increased amounts of attention from hydrogeologists. Therefore, different methods called quality indicators of ground water...